The School of Odds
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Wests Tigers v Penrith Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 04:00 UTC

Final: Wests Tigers 0–68 Penrith Panthers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 19.32%5.17fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.47%19.53%19.32%20.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.634.654.9022.73%21.59%21.51%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Penrith Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 77.38%1.29fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -13.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.27%77.11%77.38%78.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.181.181.2588.50%84.57%84.75%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.29%30.35fair odd
EV +18.61%
Edge +0.517%
Kelly +0.532%
Growth +0.099%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.56%3.36%3.29%4.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0026.7524.5036.004.55%3.74%4.08%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 19.32%; Penrith Panthers (Visit): 77.38%; Draw: 3.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 30.35. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.61%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -8.21%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.05%EV -8.69%E -7.37%K -48.28%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.56%EV +18.61%E +0.517%K +0.532%G +0.099%8.6%2026-06-07 01:29
Winamax (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.47%EV -5.31%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.70%EV -11.01%E -9.58%K -73.42%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.83%EV +5.43%E +0.170%K +0.175%G +0.010%10.5%2026-06-07 01:29
Winamax (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.94%EV -9.17%E -1.95%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 78.09%EV -11.79%E -10.34%K -84.19%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 2.97%EV -1.16%E -0.039%K -0.040%G +0.000%12.3%2026-06-07 01:30
Tipico (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -9.17%E -1.95%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.03%EV -8.69%E -7.37%K -48.28%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV -17.63%E -0.705%K -0.735%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-05 09:10
NetBet (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.70%EV -14.97%E -3.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 76.69%EV -12.56%E -11.11%K -96.61%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.61%EV -20.92%E -0.872%K -0.910%G +0.000%15.4%2026-06-07 03:49
Unibet (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -14.97%E -3.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.79%EV -8.69%E -7.37%K -48.28%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV -24.22%E -1.05%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 14:49
Betsson🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -11.11%E -2.41%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.27%EV -3.27%E -2.62%K -13.10%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.28%EV -27.51%E -1.25%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-06 22:10
NordicBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -11.11%E -2.41%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.27%EV -3.27%E -2.62%K -13.10%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.28%EV -27.51%E -1.25%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-06 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-06-07 03:49
BetOnline.ag🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%3.7%2026-06-07 03:19
Neds🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%4.7%2026-06-07 02:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%4.7%2026-06-07 02:39
Bet Right🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%4.7%2026-06-07 03:39
Pinnacle🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%5.1%2026-06-07 03:19
Betr (AU)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%5.2%2026-06-07 00:49
PlayUp🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%5.3%2026-06-07 03:09
SportsBet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%5.3%2026-06-04 12:29
TAB🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.5%2026-06-07 02:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%5.6%2026-06-07 03:29
BetRivers🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%5.6%2026-06-06 22:49
Unibet (NL)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%5.6%2026-06-06 22:50
Casumo🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%5.6%2026-06-06 22:49
Unibet (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%5.6%2026-06-06 22:49
LeoVegas🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%5.6%2026-06-06 22:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%5.6%2026-06-06 22:49
TABtouch🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%5.6%2026-06-06 22:49
Unibet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%5.6%2026-06-06 22:50
Dabble (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%5.8%2026-06-06 06:00
Grosvenor🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%6.0%2026-06-06 22:10