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Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels

Kickoff: 2026-08-02 06:07 UTC

Final: Wests Tigers 13–16 Parramatta Eels

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 34.79%2.87fair odd
EV +0.894%
Edge +0.308%
Kelly +0.471%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.37%34.24%34.79%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.652.672.9040.82%37.67%37.45%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Parramatta Eels (Visit)

Prediction 61.78%1.62fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -2.74%
Kelly -7.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.23%61.98%61.78%64.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.481.5571.43%67.77%67.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.43%29.13fair odd
EV +2.98%
Edge +0.099%
Kelly +0.103%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.02%3.77%3.43%5.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0024.0025.0030.005.56%4.17%4.00%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 34.79%; Parramatta Eels (Visit): 61.78%; Draw: 3.43%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.98%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV +0.894%E +0.308%K +0.471%G +0.004%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -13.51%E -9.65%K -33.78%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV -14.19%E -0.567%K -0.591%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-27 04:14
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -2.59%E -0.923%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.14%EV -9.19%E -6.25%K -19.55%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV -14.19%E -0.567%K -0.591%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 05:59
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.58%EV -6.06%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.23%EV -4.25%E -2.74%K -7.72%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV -38.21%E -2.12%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 05:55
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.58%EV -6.06%E -2.25%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.23%EV -4.25%E -2.74%K -7.72%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV -38.21%E -2.12%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 05:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.53%EV -7.11%E -2.66%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -8.57%E -5.79%K -17.86%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%EV -0.456%E -0.016%K -0.016%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 06:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.78%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.16%EV -11.04%E -7.67%K -25.10%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.07%EV -24.48%E -1.11%K -1.17%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-02 05:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 34.48%EV -12.33%E -4.89%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.18%EV -12.28%E -8.65%K -29.23%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.34%EV -31.35%E -1.57%K -1.65%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-02 06:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -13.02%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.77%EV -7.95%E -5.34%K -16.23%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.02%EV +2.98%E +0.099%K +0.103%G +0.003%10.4%2026-08-02 06:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.50%EV -14.76%E -6.03%K -10.18%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.42%EV -8.57%E -5.79%K -17.86%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.08%EV -0.456%E -0.016%K -0.016%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-02 06:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-08-02 06:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%3.2%2026-08-02 05:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%4.5%2026-08-02 05:55
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%4.5%2026-08-02 05:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-08-02 05:54
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-08-02 05:59
Dabble (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-08-02 05:24
SportsBet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.90%5.3%2026-08-02 06:04
TAB🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-08-02 05:23
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-08-02 06:00
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%5.4%2026-08-02 05:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-08-02 05:19
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%6.2%2026-08-02 05:45
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-08-02 06:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-08-02 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-08-02 06:05
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%7.9%2026-08-02 06:04
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%7.9%2026-08-02 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%10.6%2026-08-02 06:04

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