The School of Odds

Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels

2026-08-02 06:05 UTC — NRL

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Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 45.72%2.19fair odd
EV -6.27%
Edge -3.06%
Kelly -5.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.24%45.72%45.72%46.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.841.951.962.0554%51%51%49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Parramatta Eels (Visit)

Prediction 50.19%1.99fair odd
EV -7.15%
Edge -3.86%
Kelly -8.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.92%50.19%50.19%50.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.741.811.831.8557%55%54%54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 4.09%24.47fair odd
EV +6.26%
Edge +0.241%
Kelly +0.250%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.54%4.09%4.09%4.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
19.0021.1720.0026.005%5%5%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.99I 50.25%NM 46.21%EV -9.01%E -4.53%K -9.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -8.15%E -4.46%K -9.82%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV +6.26%E +0.241%K +0.250%G +0.016%8.7%2026-07-22 04:49
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 46.67%EV -11.30%E -5.82%K -12.02%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.21%EV -7.65%E -4.16%K -9.11%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.12%EV -10.09%E -0.459%K -0.480%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-22 04:50
Betsson2.05I 48.78%NM 45.24%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.13%EV -7.15%E -3.86%K -8.41%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.64%EV -18.26%E -0.913%K -0.961%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-22 05:25
NordicBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.24%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.13%EV -7.15%E -3.86%K -8.41%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.64%EV -18.26%E -0.913%K -0.961%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-22 05:25
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 46.52%EV -15.87%E -8.62%K -18.89%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 49.20%EV -12.67%E -7.28%K -17.12%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.28%EV -18.26%E -0.913%K -0.961%G +0.000%16.8%2026-07-22 04:50
Unibet (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 46.54%EV -15.41%E -8.33%K -18.13%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 48.92%EV -11.67%E -6.63%K -15.35%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.53%EV -22.35%E -1.18%K -1.24%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-22 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%5.1%2026-07-22 04:45