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Wests Tigers v North Queensland Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 04:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 58.33%1.71fair odd
EV -6.67%
Edge -4.17%
Kelly -11.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.39%58.13%58.33%59.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.581.6066.67%63.69%63.49%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 37.86%2.64fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.982%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.11%37.67%37.86%38.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.452.6042.55%40.73%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.81%26.23fair odd
EV +21.98%
Edge +0.687%
Kelly +0.709%
Growth +0.156%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.83%4.20%3.81%6.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0023.0022.0032.006.67%4.35%4.55%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 58.33%; North Queensland Cowboys (Visit): 37.86%; Draw: 3.81%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.98%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.70%EV -10.17%E -6.60%K -18.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.47%EV -11.04%E -4.70%K -8.17%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.83%EV +21.98%E +0.687%K +0.709%G +0.156%10.6%2026-03-14 03:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.29%EV -7.84%E -4.96%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.53%EV -9.52%E -3.98%K -6.85%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%EV +10.55%E +0.364%K +0.377%G +0.040%8.6%2026-03-14 03:59
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.24%EV -6.67%E -4.17%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.03%EV -7.25%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%EV -4.70%E -0.188%K -0.196%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 04:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.61%EV -12.50%E -8.34%K -25.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.50%EV -7.25%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV -12.33%E -0.536%K -0.560%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 03:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.73%EV -8.42%E -5.36%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -5.36%E -2.14%K -3.57%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -19.95%E -0.950%K -0.997%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 03:59
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.73%EV -8.42%E -5.36%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -5.36%E -2.14%K -3.57%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -19.95%E -0.950%K -0.997%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 03:59
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.68%EV -6.67%E -4.17%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -1.57%E -0.604%K -0.982%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -31.39%E -1.74%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 03:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.39%EV -6.67%E -4.17%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.59%EV -9.14%E -3.81%K -6.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.02%EV -42.82%E -2.85%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-14 03:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.3%2026-03-14 04:00
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%3.9%2026-03-14 03:59
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%4.1%2026-03-14 03:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%4.5%2026-03-14 03:59
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%4.5%2026-03-14 03:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-03-14 04:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-03-14 03:59
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%5.2%2026-03-14 04:00
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-03-14 04:00
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-03-14 04:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-03-14 03:59
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 03:59
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 04:00
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 04:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 03:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 04:00
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%6.1%2026-03-14 04:00
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%6.1%2026-03-14 03:58
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%6.2%2026-03-14 04:00
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%9.2%2026-03-14 04:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%9.7%2026-03-14 04:00