The School of Odds
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Wests Tigers v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 06:06 UTC

Final: Wests Tigers 42–22 Newcastle Knights

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 58.20%1.72fair odd
EV +0.103%
Edge +0.060%
Kelly +0.143%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.72%57.51%58.20%59.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.601.571.7265.79%62.33%63.69%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 37.83%2.64fair odd
EV -8.46%
Edge -3.49%
Kelly -5.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.61%38.37%37.83%40.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.342.352.4245.05%42.78%42.55%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.97%25.17fair odd
EV +19.20%
Edge +0.640%
Kelly +0.662%
Growth +0.127%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.01%4.12%3.97%5.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.2221.0030.005.56%4.50%4.76%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 58.20%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 37.83%; Draw: 3.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.17. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.20%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.38%EV -11.54%E -7.59%K -22.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.61%EV -9.21%E -3.84%K -6.58%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.01%EV +19.20%E +0.640%K +0.662%G +0.127%10.8%2026-04-12 06:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -8.63%E -5.49%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.05%EV -8.46%E -3.49%K -5.96%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV +11.25%E +0.402%K +0.417%G +0.047%8.6%2026-04-12 06:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.38%EV -11.54%E -7.59%K -22.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.76%EV -11.11%E -4.73%K -8.23%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.86%EV -8.62%E -0.375%K -0.392%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-12 06:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.27%EV -9.79%E -6.32%K -17.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.21%E -3.84%K -6.58%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.11%EV -12.59%E -0.572%K -0.600%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 06:04
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.89%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.74%EV -14.89%E -6.62%K -11.91%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -16.56%E -0.789%K -0.828%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-12 06:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.89%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.74%EV -14.89%E -6.62%K -11.91%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -16.56%E -0.789%K -0.828%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-12 06:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 56.67%EV -11.54%E -7.59%K -22.19%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 38.80%EV -16.02%E -7.22%K -13.13%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.53%EV -24.51%E -1.29%K -1.36%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-12 06:04
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -1.06%E -0.624%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -9.21%E -3.84%K -6.58%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -28.48%E -1.58%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 06:05
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.72%EV +0.103%E +0.060%K +0.143%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -11.11%E -4.73%K -8.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -28.48%E -1.58%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 06:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.1%2026-04-12 06:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.59%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.41%3.2%2026-04-12 06:05
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%4.0%2026-04-12 06:04
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%4.5%2026-04-12 06:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%4.5%2026-04-12 06:05
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%4.5%2026-04-12 06:05
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%4.6%2026-04-12 06:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-04-12 06:05
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-04-12 06:05
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-04-12 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-04-12 06:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-04-12 06:05
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-04-12 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-04-12 06:05
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-04-12 06:05
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-04-12 06:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-04-12 06:04
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-04-12 06:03
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-04-12 06:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%6.2%2026-04-12 06:05
LeoVegas🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.50%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.50%9.1%2026-04-12 06:05