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Wests Tigers v New Zealand Warriors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Wests Tigers (Local)
assuming max odds 3.30
New Zealand Warriors (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.40
Draw
assuming max odds 30.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 30.01%; New Zealand Warriors (Visit): 66.32%; Draw: 3.67%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.28. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.98%.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -9.81%E -7.21%K -27.24%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +9.98%E +0.333%K +0.344%G +0.034% | 8.6% | 2026-07-10 09:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.69%EV -11.46%E -3.88%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.08%EV -9.14%E -6.67%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.23%EV +2.65%E +0.095%K +0.098%G +0.003% | 10.5% | 2026-07-10 09:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -12.96%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.90%EV -9.81%E -7.21%K -27.24%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.20%EV +2.65%E +0.095%K +0.098%G +0.003% | 11.6% | 2026-07-10 09:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.65%EV -7.15%E -5.11%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%EV -8.35%E -0.334%K -0.348%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 06:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -12.96%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -7.15%E -5.11%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV -8.35%E -0.334%K -0.348%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-08 06:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 29.84%EV -12.36%E -4.23%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.01%EV -12.46%E -9.44%K -38.93%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.15%EV -23.02%E -1.10%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-07-10 09:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.64%EV -18.96%E -7.02%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.95%EV -7.15%E -5.11%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.41%EV -26.68%E -1.33%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-07-10 09:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -0.952%E -0.289%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.90%EV -8.48%E -6.14%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -34.01%E -1.89%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-10 09:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -0.952%E -0.289%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.90%EV -8.48%E -6.14%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -34.01%E -1.89%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-10 09:49 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-07-10 09:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80% | 3.8% | 2026-07-10 08:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.05% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.95% | 4.4% | 2026-07-10 09:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20% | 4.7% | 2026-07-10 09:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69% | 4.7% | 2026-07-10 09:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91% | 5.2% | 2026-07-10 09:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 08:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 08:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 09:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 09:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 09:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51% | 5.8% | 2026-07-09 05:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51% | 5.8% | 2026-07-09 05:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49% | 5.8% | 2026-07-09 11:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00% | 5.8% | 2026-07-10 10:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48% | 5.9% | 2026-07-10 08:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16% | 6.4% | 2026-07-10 10:00 |
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