Language:English
Wests Tigers v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Wests Tigers (Local)
assuming max odds 3.60
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.40
Draw
assuming max odds 32.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 27.52%; Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit): 68.77%; Draw: 3.71%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.96. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.70%.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -10.56%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.58%EV -11.29%E -8.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 2.80%EV +18.70%E +0.584%K +0.603%G +0.113% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 27.75%EV -8.64%E -2.60%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.53%E -6.42%K -25.86%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +14.99%E +0.483%K +0.500%G +0.075% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -0.930%E -0.258%K -0.358%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.89%EV -9.22%E -6.99%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.12%EV +11.28%E +0.376%K +0.389%G +0.044% | 6.9% | 2026-05-16 05:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -3.68%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.19%EV -9.91%E -7.56%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV -3.56%E -0.137%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-16 05:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -10.56%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 69.49%EV -14.04%E -11.23%K -56.14%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.78%EV -14.69%E -0.639%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-16 05:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -9.19%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.92%EV -3.72%E -2.66%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -25.81%E -1.29%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -6.43%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.09%EV -10.60%E -8.15%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.49%EV -25.81%E -1.29%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 0.3% | 2026-05-16 05:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.73% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.27% | 4.2% | 2026-05-16 05:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.18% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.82% | 4.8% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.41% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.59% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 05:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 05:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 04:58 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63% | 5.9% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96% | 6.0% | 2026-05-16 05:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96% | 6.0% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96% | 6.0% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 04:59 |