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Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 07:31 UTC

Final: Wests Tigers 22–16 Canterbury Bulldogs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 55.38%1.81fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -4.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.82%55.54%55.38%56.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.641.601.7563.29%60.98%62.31%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 40.00%2.50fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -2.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.97%40.00%41.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.4047.62%44.40%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.62%21.64fair odd
EV +29.41%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.320%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.21%4.48%4.62%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.6321.0028.005.56%4.62%4.76%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 55.38%; Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit): 40.00%; Draw: 4.62%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.64. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 28.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +29.41%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.86%EV -12.50%E -7.91%K -21.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.93%EV -10.00%E -4.44%K -8.00%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.21%EV +29.41%E +1.05%K +1.09%G +0.320%11.3%2026-05-30 07:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.12%EV -7.52%E -4.50%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.47%EV -11.20%E -5.04%K -9.18%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV +24.79%E +0.918%K +0.953%G +0.236%8.6%2026-05-30 07:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.82%EV -12.50%E -7.91%K -21.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.24%EV -16.00%E -7.62%K -14.54%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.94%EV +1.68%E +0.076%K +0.080%G +0.001%15.5%2026-05-30 07:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.29%EV -10.84%E -6.73%K -17.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.47%EV -12.00%E -5.45%K -10.00%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.24%EV -2.94%E -0.140%K -0.147%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-30 07:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.26%EV -12.50%E -7.91%K -21.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -10.00%E -4.44%K -8.00%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -2.94%E -0.140%K -0.147%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-30 07:30
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.82%EV -3.09%E -1.77%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.95%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.15%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -16.81%E -0.934%K -0.989%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 07:30
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.82%EV -3.09%E -1.77%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.95%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.15%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -16.81%E -0.934%K -0.989%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 07:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -11.40%E -7.12%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -4.00%E -1.67%K -2.86%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -16.81%E -0.934%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-30 07:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.3%2026-05-30 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%3.4%2026-05-30 07:29
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.38%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.62%3.7%2026-05-30 07:29
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-30 07:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-30 07:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-30 07:30
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-30 07:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-30 07:30
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-30 07:30
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-30 07:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-30 07:30
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-30 07:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-30 07:30
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%5.1%2026-05-30 07:30
TAB🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-05-30 07:30
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-05-30 07:30
PlayUp🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-05-30 07:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-30 07:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%5.7%2026-05-30 07:29
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%5.8%2026-05-30 07:30
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%5.8%2026-05-30 07:24
Matchbook◎1.63I 61.35%NM 53.82%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.18%14.0%2026-05-30 07:29