The School of Odds
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Wests Tigers v Canberra Raiders

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 09:52 UTC

Final: Wests Tigers 33–14 Canberra Raiders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 62.76%1.59fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -3.03%
Kelly -8.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.83%62.58%62.76%63.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.461.461.5273.53%68.49%68.49%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 33.37%3.00fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.25%33.17%33.37%34.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.732.702.9038.17%36.62%37.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.86%25.88fair odd
EV +15.90%
Edge +0.530%
Kelly +0.548%
Growth +0.087%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.07%4.25%3.86%6.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0022.3321.0030.006.67%4.48%4.76%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 62.76%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 33.37%; Draw: 3.86%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.88. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.90%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.07%EV -8.36%E -5.73%K -18.18%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.86%EV -9.23%E -3.39%K -5.36%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +15.90%E +0.530%K +0.548%G +0.087%8.6%2026-04-23 09:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.88%EV -10.88%E -7.66%K -25.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.13%EV +12.03%E +0.415%K +0.430%G +0.052%10.2%2026-04-23 09:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.59%EV -11.50%E -8.16%K -28.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.20%EV +8.17%E +0.292%K +0.303%G +0.025%11.5%2026-04-23 09:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.65%EV -14.64%E -10.77%K -40.67%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.42%EV -10.89%E -4.08%K -6.52%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.93%EV -15.01%E -0.682%K -0.715%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-23 09:49
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.83%EV -5.85%E -3.90%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -12.56%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV -18.87%E -0.899%K -0.944%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 09:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.83%EV -5.85%E -3.90%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -12.56%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV -18.87%E -0.899%K -0.944%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 09:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -8.99%E -6.20%K -19.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -22.73%E -1.14%K -1.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 09:50
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -4.60%E -3.03%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.22%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -42.05%E -2.80%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 09:49
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -4.60%E -3.03%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.22%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -42.05%E -2.80%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 09:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.67%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.33%1.4%2026-04-23 09:49
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%3.7%2026-04-23 09:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.81%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.19%4.1%2026-04-23 09:50
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%4.4%2026-04-23 09:49
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%4.9%2026-04-23 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-04-23 09:49
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-04-23 09:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-23 09:50
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-04-23 09:50
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-04-23 09:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-04-23 09:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-23 09:49
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-23 09:49
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-23 09:49
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-23 09:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-23 09:49
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-23 09:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-23 09:49
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-04-23 09:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%6.0%2026-04-23 09:50
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%6.3%2026-04-23 09:49