The School of Odds
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Wests Tigers v Brisbane Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 09:35 UTC

Final: Wests Tigers 20–21 Brisbane Broncos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 60.66%1.65fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -7.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.77%60.56%60.66%63.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.481.5869.44%66.96%67.57%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 35.58%2.81fair odd
EV -0.384%
Edge -0.137%
Kelly -0.213%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.49%35.56%35.58%37.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.622.602.8041.32%38.20%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.76%26.59fair odd
EV +24.09%
Edge +0.730%
Kelly +0.753%
Growth +0.181%

assuming max odds 33.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.79%3.88%3.76%5.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.4421.0033.005.56%4.46%4.76%3.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 60.66%; Brisbane Broncos (Visit): 35.58%; Draw: 3.76%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 33.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.09%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.21%EV -7.19%E -4.70%K -13.56%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.00%EV -11.41%E -4.58%K -7.66%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +24.09%E +0.730%K +0.753%G +0.181%8.6%2026-04-18 04:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.89%EV -12.04%E -8.30%K -26.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.50%E -2.88%K -4.69%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -5.99%E -0.240%K -0.250%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-14 08:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.64%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -9.28%E -3.64%K -5.99%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.93%EV -13.51%E -0.588%K -0.614%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-18 09:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.37%EV -10.22%E -6.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.74%EV -11.06%E -4.42%K -7.37%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.88%EV -13.51%E -0.588%K -0.614%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-18 09:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -12.65%E -8.78%K -28.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -0.384%E -0.137%K -0.213%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -21.03%E -1.00%K -1.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-16 09:20
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -12.65%E -8.78%K -28.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -0.384%E -0.137%K -0.213%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -21.03%E -1.00%K -1.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-16 09:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 59.82%EV -12.04%E -8.30%K -26.75%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.84%EV -13.90%E -5.75%K -9.79%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.34%EV -24.79%E -1.24%K -1.30%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-18 05:30
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.77%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.98%EV -3.94%E -1.46%K -2.32%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -32.31%E -1.80%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 09:00
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.77%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.98%EV -3.94%E -1.46%K -2.32%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -32.31%E -1.80%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 09:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%0.6%2026-04-18 09:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.61%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.39%3.4%2026-04-18 09:00
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%4.0%2026-04-18 09:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%4.5%2026-04-18 09:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-04-17 02:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-04-17 02:09
LeoVegas🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-04-17 02:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-04-17 02:09
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-04-17 02:09
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-04-17 02:09
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-04-17 02:09
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-04-12 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-04-12 13:00
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-04-18 01:20
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-04-18 09:00
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%5.1%2026-04-18 05:30
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-18 09:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-18 07:00
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%5.7%2026-04-17 02:09
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%5.7%2026-04-17 02:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%6.2%2026-04-18 09:00