Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters v Wests Tigers

2026-08-23 06:05 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

80%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 79.63%1.26fair odd

EV -7.63%

Edge -6.57%

Kelly -47.66%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.43%79.63%79.63%81.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.091.121.101.1691.74%89.69%90.50%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 17.94%5.58fair odd

EV +2.24%

Edge +0.393%

Kelly +0.476%

Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.84%17.94%17.94%17.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.805.114.975.7020.83%19.56%20.10%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.43%41.14fair odd

EV -7.63%

Edge -0.201%

Kelly -0.206%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 38.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.43%2.43%2.43%3.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

24.0030.0029.0038.004.17%3.33%3.45%2.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sydney Roosters (Local): 79.63%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 17.94%; Draw: 2.43%. For Wests Tigers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.58. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.70, producing a positive expected value of +2.24%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 81.34%EV -11.61%E -10.46%K -105.53%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 15.84%EV +2.24%E +0.393%K +0.476%G +0.011%	32.00I 3.13%NM 2.82%EV -22.21%E -0.694%K -0.717%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-08-12 12:24
Marathon Bet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 79.63%EV -7.63%E -6.57%K -47.66%G +0.000%	5.15I 19.42%NM 17.94%EV -7.63%E -1.48%K -1.84%G +0.000%	38.00I 2.63%NM 2.43%EV -7.63%E -0.201%K -0.206%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-08-12 06:49
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 78.43%EV -12.40%E -11.28%K -124.04%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 17.97%EV -13.90%E -2.90%K -3.66%G +0.000%	24.00I 4.17%NM 3.59%EV -41.66%E -1.74%K -1.81%G +0.000%	15.9%	2026-08-12 14:24
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 78.80%EV -13.20%E -12.11%K -146.67%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 17.89%EV -13.90%E -2.90%K -3.66%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.30%EV -36.80%E -1.42%K -1.47%G +0.000%	16.4%	2026-08-12 13:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%	5.1%	2026-08-12 06:40

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