The School of Odds
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Sydney Roosters v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 06:08 UTC

Final: Sydney Roosters 24–25 Wests Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 87.45%1.14fair odd
EV -7.30%
Edge -6.89%
Kelly -121.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.74%87.38%87.58%88.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.041.0699.01%95.81%95.69%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 10.01%9.99fair odd
EV +0.125%
Edge +0.013%
Kelly +0.014%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.37%10.14%9.77%11.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.008.878.8810.0012.50%11.28%11.27%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.54%39.42fair odd
EV +29.38%
Edge +0.576%
Kelly +0.588%
Growth +0.173%

assuming max odds 51.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.80%2.48%2.65%3.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
30.0038.7535.0051.003.33%2.58%2.86%1.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Roosters (Local): 87.45%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 10.01%; Draw: 2.54%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 39.42. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 51.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +29.38%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.51%EV -9.05%E -8.70%K -226.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV -4.88%E -0.514%K -0.574%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.80%EV +29.38%E +0.576%K +0.588%G +0.173%8.6%2026-08-23 04:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 86.90%EV -9.05%E -8.70%K -226.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -19.90%E -2.49%K -2.84%G +0.000%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.81%EV +26.84%E +0.537%K +0.548%G +0.147%10.7%2026-08-23 06:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.40%EV -7.30%E -6.89%K -121.70%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV +0.125%E +0.013%K +0.014%G +0.000%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.23%EV +6.54%E +0.156%K +0.160%G +0.010%6.7%2026-08-23 06:05
Betsson🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.58%EV -7.30%E -6.89%K -121.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -4.88%E -0.514%K -0.574%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.65%EV -11.21%E -0.320%K -0.330%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 04:44
NordicBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.58%EV -7.30%E -6.89%K -121.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -4.88%E -0.514%K -0.574%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.65%EV -11.21%E -0.320%K -0.330%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 04:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 86.58%EV -9.93%E -9.64%K -330.86%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 10.87%EV -17.90%E -2.18%K -2.49%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.55%EV -11.21%E -0.320%K -0.330%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-23 06:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 86.66%EV -11.67%E -11.56%K -1167.48%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.61%EV -17.40%E -2.11%K -2.40%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.74%EV -18.82%E -0.588%K -0.607%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-23 06:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.74%EV -8.18%E -7.79%K -163.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -19.90%E -2.49%K -2.84%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.00%EV -23.90%E -0.797%K -0.824%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-18 09:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%0.9%2026-08-23 06:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.77%8.54I 11.71%NM 11.23%4.3%2026-08-22 21:49
Matchbook◎1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%4.6%2026-08-22 06:35
SportsBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%4.8%2026-08-23 04:44
Bet Right🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%4.8%2026-08-23 05:05
TAB🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-08-23 06:00
TABtouch🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-08-20 09:24
Casumo🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-08-20 09:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-08-20 09:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-08-20 09:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-08-20 09:24
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.84%8.52I 11.74%NM 11.16%5.2%2026-08-23 05:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%5.2%2026-08-23 06:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%5.2%2026-08-23 04:50
Neds🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%5.2%2026-08-23 04:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%5.2%2026-08-23 06:05
PlayUp🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%5.5%2026-08-23 02:59
BetRivers🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%6.0%2026-08-23 00:34
Unibet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%6.0%2026-08-23 00:34
Grosvenor🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%6.8%2026-08-23 00:09