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Sydney Roosters v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 54.22%1.84fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -6.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.78%54.13%54.22%57.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.671.671.7563.69%59.99%60.06%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit)

Prediction 41.50%2.41fair odd
EV +0.003%
Edge +0.001%
Kelly +0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.36%41.63%41.50%42.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.242.4147.62%44.92%44.64%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.28%23.36fair odd
EV +24.12%
Edge +0.832%
Kelly +0.861%
Growth +0.208%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.18%4.24%4.28%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.6021.0029.005.56%4.63%4.76%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Roosters (Local): 54.22%; South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit): 41.50%; Draw: 4.28%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.36. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.12%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.51%EV -9.99%E -6.02%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.07%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%EV +24.12%E +0.832%K +0.861%G +0.208%8.5%2026-03-13 03:18
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.78%EV -13.24%E -8.28%K -22.07%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.36%EV +0.003%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.85%EV +2.72%E +0.113%K +0.118%G +0.003%8.2%2026-03-07 01:01
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.22%EV -9.99%E -6.02%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.86%EV -10.79%E -5.02%K -9.38%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.91%EV -1.56%E -0.068%K -0.071%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-13 05:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.43%EV -11.07%E -6.75%K -17.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.52%EV -10.79%E -5.02%K -9.38%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.06%EV -5.84%E -0.265%K -0.278%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-13 02:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.89%EV -9.44%E -5.66%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.74%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -10.12%E -0.482%K -0.506%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-11 19:30
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.89%EV -9.44%E -5.66%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.74%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -10.12%E -0.482%K -0.506%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-11 19:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -7.82%E -4.60%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.73%EV -12.86%E -6.12%K -11.69%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.49%EV -14.40%E -0.720%K -0.758%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-11 03:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.97%EV -14.87%E -9.47%K -26.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 40.71%EV -12.03%E -5.67%K -10.74%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.32%EV -14.40%E -0.720%K -0.758%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-13 04:25
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.82%EV -5.11%E -2.92%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.95%EV -4.56%E -1.98%K -3.51%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -22.96%E -1.28%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-12 20:29
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.82%EV -5.11%E -2.92%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.95%EV -4.56%E -1.98%K -3.51%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -22.96%E -1.28%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-12 20:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-03-13 05:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%3.2%2026-03-12 21:20
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%4.5%2026-03-13 00:23
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-03-13 03:20
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-03-13 03:20
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-03-13 03:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-03-13 03:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-03-13 03:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-03-13 03:20
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-03-13 03:19
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-12 20:48
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-13 04:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-13 02:09
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-13 02:09
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-13 02:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-12 04:49
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%5.1%2026-03-13 05:19
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-03-13 04:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-03-12 22:30
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%5.8%2026-03-13 03:20
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%5.8%2026-03-13 03:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-03-13 04:34