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Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 07:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 36.32%2.75fair odd
EV -5.56%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -3.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.00%36.27%36.32%36.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.472.532.502.6040.49%39.60%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Penrith Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 60.16%1.66fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.37%59.86%60.16%61.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.531.541.6269.93%65.22%64.94%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.52%28.40fair odd
EV +2.10%
Edge +0.072%
Kelly +0.075%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.13%3.87%3.52%5.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.4419.0029.005.56%4.46%5.26%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Roosters (Local): 36.32%; Penrith Panthers (Visit): 60.16%; Draw: 3.52%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.40. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.10%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.58%EV -7.38%E -2.89%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.30%EV -10.97%E -7.41%K -22.85%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.13%EV +2.10%E +0.072%K +0.075%G +0.002%10.2%2026-03-20 07:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 60.96%EV -11.57%E -7.87%K -24.62%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.20%EV -1.42%E -0.051%K -0.053%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-20 07:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.73%EV -8.83%E -3.52%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.86%EV -7.36%E -4.78%K -13.63%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV -4.94%E -0.183%K -0.190%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-20 06:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.14%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -9.76%E -6.51%K -19.53%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -11.99%E -0.479%K -0.499%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-20 06:59
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.46%EV -5.55%E -3.54%K -9.74%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV -33.11%E -1.74%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-20 07:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.46%EV -5.55%E -3.54%K -9.74%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV -33.11%E -1.74%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-20 06:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.00%EV -10.28%E -4.16%K -7.00%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 60.45%EV -13.98%E -9.77%K -32.50%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.55%EV -33.11%E -1.74%K -1.84%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-20 07:00
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -5.56%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.37%EV -2.55%E -1.57%K -4.11%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -36.63%E -2.03%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 07:00
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -5.56%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.37%EV -2.55%E -1.57%K -4.11%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -36.63%E -2.03%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 07:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%0.6%2026-03-20 07:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%3.2%2026-03-20 07:00
Pinnacle🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%4.0%2026-03-20 06:59
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%4.6%2026-03-20 07:00
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-03-20 07:00
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-03-20 07:00
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-03-20 07:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-03-20 07:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-03-20 07:00
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-03-20 07:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-03-20 07:00
Bet365 (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-03-20 06:59
Dabble (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-03-20 06:59
SportsBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%5.1%2026-03-20 07:00
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-03-20 07:00
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-03-20 07:00
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-03-20 07:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-03-20 07:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-03-20 07:00
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%5.7%2026-03-20 07:00
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%5.7%2026-03-20 06:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%5.9%2026-03-20 07:00