The School of Odds
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Sydney Roosters v North Queensland Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 07:31 UTC

Final: Sydney Roosters 12–18 North Queensland Cowboys

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 76.28%1.31fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -3.72%
Kelly -18.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.27%76.27%76.28%77.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.191.2585.47%82.87%83.68%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 20.30%4.93fair odd
EV -6.62%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.03%20.31%20.30%20.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.524.504.6022.73%22.14%22.22%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.42%29.23fair odd
EV +23.15%
Edge +0.643%
Kelly +0.662%
Growth +0.153%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.50%3.42%3.42%4.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0028.1726.5036.004.55%3.55%3.77%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Roosters (Local): 76.28%; North Queensland Cowboys (Visit): 20.30%; Draw: 3.42%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.15%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.47%E -7.05%K -42.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.65%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.56%EV +23.15%E +0.643%K +0.662%G +0.153%8.3%2026-05-16 07:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.02%EV -10.75%E -9.19%K -63.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -10.68%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.50%EV +23.15%E +0.643%K +0.662%G +0.153%11.0%2026-05-16 07:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.51%EV -9.23%E -7.75%K -48.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -8.65%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.25%EV -4.21%E -0.150%K -0.156%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 07:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.37%EV -9.99%E -8.47%K -55.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.03%EV -8.65%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -14.48%E -0.579%K -0.603%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-16 07:29
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.27%EV -4.65%E -3.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -6.62%E -1.44%K -1.84%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.28%EV -24.74%E -1.12%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 07:29
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.27%EV -4.65%E -3.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -6.62%E -1.44%K -1.84%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.28%EV -24.74%E -1.12%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 07:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%0.6%2026-05-16 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.74%4.99I 20.04%NM 19.26%4.1%2026-05-16 07:29
Dabble (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%4.4%2026-05-16 07:28
Bet Right🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%4.9%2026-05-16 07:30
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.39%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.61%5.1%2026-05-16 07:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%5.1%2026-05-16 07:30
Neds🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%5.1%2026-05-16 07:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%5.1%2026-05-16 07:30
PlayUp🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%5.1%2026-05-16 07:30
SportsBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%5.3%2026-05-16 07:30
Casumo🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-05-16 07:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-05-16 07:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-05-16 07:30
Grosvenor🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-05-16 07:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-05-16 07:30
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-05-16 07:30
LeoVegas🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-05-16 07:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-16 07:30
TAB🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%5.6%2026-05-16 07:29
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%5.6%2026-05-16 07:28
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%5.6%2026-05-16 07:30
Matchbook◎1.21I 82.64%NM 74.31%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%11.2%2026-05-16 07:29