The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 08:40 UTC

Final: Sydney Roosters 19–18 Newcastle Knights

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 68.84%1.45fair odd
EV -0.175%
Edge -0.121%
Kelly -0.389%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.28%68.82%68.84%69.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.381.4573.53%71.62%72.46%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 31.16%3.21fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%31.18%31.16%33.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.013.003.1035.09%33.25%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Roosters (Local): 68.84%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 31.16%. For Sydney Roosters (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.453. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.450, with an expected value of -0.175%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -0.175%E -0.121%K -0.389%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -11.21%E -3.93%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-04 07:30
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -0.864%E -0.600%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -9.65%E -3.33%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-04 07:50
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.24%E -1.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -6.53%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 02:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.24%E -1.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -6.53%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 04:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -2.24%E -1.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -9.65%E -3.33%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 08:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -2.93%E -2.08%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -4.98%E -1.63%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-04 07:30
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.62%E -2.58%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.53%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.62%E -2.58%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.53%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 07:45
PlayUp🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.31%E -3.10%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.53%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 08:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.42%E -1.10%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 07:50
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.42%E -1.10%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 08:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.98%E -1.63%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 05:50
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.98%E -1.63%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 05:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.98%E -1.63%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 05:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.98%E -1.63%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 05:45
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.98%E -1.63%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 05:50
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.53%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 08:20
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.53%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 08:20
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.53%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 05:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-10-04 08:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.45%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%7.5%2026-10-04 08:35
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.45%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%7.5%2026-10-04 08:35
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%7.6%2026-10-04 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%2.99I 33.44%NM 30.94%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.98%8.1%2026-10-04 08:20
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.98%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.76%10.6%2026-10-04 08:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.98%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.76%10.6%2026-10-04 08:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.38%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.61%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.01%10.7%2026-10-04 08:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.36%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%10.8%2026-10-04 08:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.32%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.57%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.11%10.9%2026-10-04 08:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.06%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.58%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.36%14.7%2026-10-04 08:30