The School of Odds

Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 07:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

1 sportsbook (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -81.97%
Kelly -454.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.10%0.00%0.00%78.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.221.221.221.2282%82%82%82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -22.99%
Kelly -29.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%0.00%0.00%21.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.354.354.354.3523%23%23%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%5.0%2026-07-05 12:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.