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Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sydney Roosters (Local)
assuming max odds 1.28
Newcastle Knights (Visit)
assuming max odds 4.60
Draw
assuming max odds 36.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Roosters (Local): 74.94%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 21.62%; Draw: 3.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.06. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.90%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -10.07%E -8.39%K -50.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -2.72%E -0.605%K -0.777%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.56%EV +23.90%E +0.664%K +0.683%G +0.163% | 8.3% | 2026-04-19 03:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.50%EV -11.57%E -9.80%K -64.28%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.99%EV -7.04%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.51%EV +23.90%E +0.664%K +0.683%G +0.163% | 10.8% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.01%EV -10.07%E -8.39%K -50.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -4.88%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.26%EV -3.63%E -0.130%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.50%EV -6.32%E -5.06%K -25.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -13.53%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -10.52%E -0.405%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.50%EV -6.32%E -5.06%K -25.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -13.53%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -10.52%E -0.405%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 03:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.05%EV -6.32%E -5.06%K -25.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.34%EV -20.02%E -5.41%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -13.96%E -0.558%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-19 03:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 77.78%EV -16.82%E -15.15%K -152.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.77%EV -0.559%E -0.122%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.45%EV -13.96%E -0.558%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-04-19 03:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.37%EV -4.08%E -3.18%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -9.21%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -24.28%E -1.10%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 03:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.37%EV -4.08%E -3.18%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -9.21%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -24.28%E -1.10%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 03:59 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64% | 4.2% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 03:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.73% | 4.48I 22.32%NM 21.27% | 5.0% | 2026-04-19 03:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96% | 5.5% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96% | 5.5% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55% | 5.8% | 2026-04-19 03:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55% | 5.8% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90% | 5.8% | 2026-04-19 04:00 |