The School of Odds
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Sydney Roosters v Gold Coast Titans

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 08:01 UTC

Final: Sydney Roosters 28–12 Gold Coast Titans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 82.24%1.22fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -3.23%
Kelly -22.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.53%82.47%82.24%84.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.101.091.1792.59%90.63%91.74%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Titans (Visit)

Prediction 14.81%6.75fair odd
EV +3.70%
Edge +0.529%
Kelly +0.617%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.88%14.61%14.81%15.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.366.227.0017.54%15.73%16.06%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.95%33.90fair odd
EV +41.60%
Edge +0.867%
Kelly +0.885%
Growth +0.368%

assuming max odds 48.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.87%2.93%2.95%3.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
25.0037.8341.5048.004.00%2.64%2.41%2.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Roosters (Local): 82.24%; Gold Coast Titans (Visit): 14.81%; Draw: 2.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 33.90. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 48.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +41.60%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.16%EV -11.19%E -10.36%K -139.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%48.00I 2.08%NM 1.87%EV +41.60%E +0.867%K +0.885%G +0.368%11.3%2026-05-08 07:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.72%EV -9.54%E -8.67%K -95.41%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.28%EV -4.45%E -0.689%K -0.816%G +0.000%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.00%EV +35.70%E +0.776%K +0.793%G +0.283%8.6%2026-05-08 07:59
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.85%K -79.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV +3.70%E +0.529%K +0.617%G +0.023%45.00I 2.22%NM 2.08%EV +32.75%E +0.728%K +0.744%G +0.244%6.6%2026-05-08 08:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.11%EV -11.19%E -10.36%K -139.82%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.56%EV -15.56%E -2.73%K -3.31%G +0.000%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.33%EV +12.10%E +0.318%K +0.327%G +0.040%12.8%2026-05-08 08:00
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.53%EV -3.78%E -3.23%K -22.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.77%EV -26.25%E -1.05%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 08:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.51%EV -11.19%E -10.36%K -139.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV +3.70%E +0.529%K +0.617%G +0.023%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -26.25%E -1.05%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-08 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.53%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.47%1.7%2026-05-08 08:00
Bet Right🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%4.5%2026-05-08 08:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%4.6%2026-05-08 08:00
Neds🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%4.6%2026-05-08 07:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.04%6.84I 14.62%NM 13.96%4.7%2026-05-08 08:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%4.9%2026-05-08 07:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%4.9%2026-05-08 08:00
Casumo🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%4.9%2026-05-08 07:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%4.9%2026-05-08 08:00
Grosvenor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%4.9%2026-05-08 08:00
TABtouch🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%4.9%2026-05-08 08:00
LeoVegas🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%4.9%2026-05-08 08:00
Pinnacle🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.55%5.79I 17.27%NM 16.45%5.0%2026-05-08 07:59
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%5.0%2026-05-08 07:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%5.5%2026-05-08 08:00
TAB🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%5.5%2026-05-08 08:00
PlayUp🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%5.5%2026-05-08 08:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%5.5%2026-05-08 07:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%6.0%2026-05-08 08:00
BetRivers🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%6.0%2026-05-08 07:56
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%6.0%2026-05-08 08:00