The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sydney Roosters v Dolphins

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 07:32 UTC

Final: Sydney Roosters 12–26 Dolphins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 58.77%1.70fair odd
EV -8.90%
Edge -5.74%
Kelly -16.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.03%58.86%58.77%59.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.531.531.5567.57%65.41%65.36%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 37.28%2.68fair odd
EV -6.80%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -4.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.57%37.27%37.28%37.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.432.422.5042.55%41.17%41.24%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.95%25.34fair odd
EV +18.37%
Edge +0.612%
Kelly +0.633%
Growth +0.116%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.07%3.87%3.95%4.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
19.0023.5023.0030.005.26%4.26%4.35%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Roosters (Local): 58.77%; Dolphins (Visit): 37.28%; Draw: 3.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.34. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.37%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.80%EV -9.49%E -6.16%K -17.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.13%EV -7.54%E -3.04%K -5.10%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +18.37%E +0.612%K +0.633%G +0.116%8.6%2026-08-29 02:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.26%EV -10.66%E -7.02%K -20.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.53%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.22%EV +10.48%E +0.374%K +0.388%G +0.041%11.0%2026-08-29 07:30
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -8.90%E -5.74%K -16.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -1.36%E -0.054%K -0.057%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 07:25
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -8.90%E -5.74%K -16.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -1.36%E -0.054%K -0.057%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 07:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.17%EV -10.66%E -7.02%K -20.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.62%EV -12.39%E -5.27%K -9.18%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.21%EV -17.14%E -0.816%K -0.857%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-29 07:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -8.90%E -5.74%K -16.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.48%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -21.09%E -1.05%K -1.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-27 21:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.95%EV -10.66%E -7.02%K -20.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.57%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.48%EV -21.09%E -1.05%K -1.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-28 21:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.56%EV -13.02%E -8.79%K -27.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.88%EV -12.39%E -5.27%K -9.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.56%EV -25.03%E -1.32%K -1.39%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-29 07:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-08-29 07:25
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%2.4%2026-08-29 07:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%3.2%2026-08-29 04:50
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%4.2%2026-08-29 07:29
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-08-29 07:30
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-08-29 07:25
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-08-29 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-08-29 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-08-29 00:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-08-29 00:20
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-08-29 00:20
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-08-23 08:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-08-23 08:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-08-29 07:25
PlayUp🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-08-29 07:30
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-08-28 12:40
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-08-29 00:20
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-08-29 00:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%5.9%2026-08-29 06:55
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%6.5%2026-08-29 02:35