The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Sydney Roosters v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 09:50 UTC

Final: Sydney Roosters 46–10 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Roosters (Local)

Prediction 65.91%1.52fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -5.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.16%65.99%65.91%66.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.441.431.4870.42%69.55%69.93%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 34.09%2.93fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.878%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.18%34.01%34.09%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.802.802.8637.74%35.76%35.71%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Roosters (Local): 65.91%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 34.09%. For Sydney Roosters (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.48, with an expected value of -2.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.45%E -1.65%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.67%E -3.65%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 15:00
PlayUp🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.11%E -2.11%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.97%E -2.95%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 10:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.43%E -3.05%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.26%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 06:35
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.09%E -3.53%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.56%E -1.63%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 00:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.09%E -3.53%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.56%E -1.63%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 00:34
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.09%E -3.53%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.56%E -1.63%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 10:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.09%E -3.53%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.26%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 10:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -5.09%E -3.53%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -7.62%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-16 00:40
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -5.74%E -4.02%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -2.51%E -0.878%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-18 04:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.74%E -4.02%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.85%E -1.00%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 03:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.74%E -4.02%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.85%E -1.00%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 03:30
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.74%E -4.02%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.85%E -1.00%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 03:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.74%E -4.02%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.85%E -1.00%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 03:30
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.74%E -4.02%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.85%E -1.00%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 03:30
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.74%E -4.02%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.56%E -1.63%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 03:30
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.74%E -4.02%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.56%E -1.63%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 03:30
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.82%EV -6.40%E -4.51%K -15.25%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.18%EV -2.51%E -0.878%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 15:05
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.40%E -4.51%K -15.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.56%E -1.63%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 03:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48%0.9%2026-09-18 15:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%7.9%2026-09-13 23:35
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%7.9%2026-09-13 23:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.31%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.61%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.09%8.0%2026-09-17 16:50
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%8.7%2026-09-16 22:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.83%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.10%11.0%2026-09-18 05:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.10%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.91%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98%11.4%2026-09-18 05:30
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.10%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.91%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98%11.4%2026-09-18 05:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.22%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.32%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.46%12.0%2026-09-18 09:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.33%15.4%2026-09-18 05:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 63.07%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.27%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.66%19.2%2026-09-18 05:30