The School of Odds
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St George Illawarra Dragons v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-07-04 07:31 UTC

Final: St George Illawarra Dragons 24–10 Wests Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)

Prediction 39.88%2.51fair odd
EV -6.29%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -4.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.18%39.92%39.80%40.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.282.3546.51%43.84%43.86%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 55.70%1.80fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -5.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.72%55.70%55.79%56.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.631.601.7263.29%61.27%62.50%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.42%22.61fair odd
EV +19.41%
Edge +0.719%
Kelly +0.747%
Growth +0.145%

assuming max odds 27.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.35%4.39%4.41%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.1120.0027.005.56%4.74%5.00%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St George Illawarra Dragons (Local): 39.88%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 55.70%; Draw: 4.42%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.61. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.41%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -9.08%E -3.98%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.18%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV +19.41%E +0.719%K +0.747%G +0.145%8.5%2026-07-03 23:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.17%EV -10.28%E -4.57%K -8.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.49%EV -10.88%E -6.80%K -18.13%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.35%EV +19.41%E +0.719%K +0.747%G +0.145%10.6%2026-07-04 07:30
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -6.29%E -2.68%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.03%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.45%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.62%EV -11.55%E -0.577%K -0.608%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-04 07:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -8.28%E -3.60%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.32%EV -10.88%E -6.80%K -18.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -11.55%E -0.577%K -0.608%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-03 22:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.70%EV -10.28%E -4.57%K -8.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -10.88%E -6.80%K -18.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.47%EV -11.55%E -0.577%K -0.608%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-04 07:28
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -10.28%E -4.57%K -8.22%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.14%EV -11.99%E -7.59%K -20.68%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.44%EV -11.55%E -0.577%K -0.608%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-04 07:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.51%EV -14.26%E -6.63%K -12.40%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.13%EV -11.99%E -7.59%K -20.68%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.36%EV -11.55%E -0.577%K -0.608%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-04 07:30
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.29%E -2.68%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.72%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -20.39%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 06:35
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.29%E -2.68%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.72%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -20.39%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-07-04 07:30
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%3.9%2026-07-04 07:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%4.1%2026-07-03 22:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%4.8%2026-07-04 07:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-07-03 21:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-07-03 21:39
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-07-03 21:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-07-03 21:40
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-07-03 21:40
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-07-04 07:30
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-07-04 07:25
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-07-04 07:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-07-04 06:25
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-07-04 06:25
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-07-04 07:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-07-04 07:05
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%5.8%2026-07-03 21:40
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%5.8%2026-07-03 21:39
Dabble (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%6.1%2026-07-04 02:00
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%6.3%2026-07-03 21:40