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St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)
assuming max odds 6.00
Sydney Roosters (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.20
Draw
assuming max odds 41.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St George Illawarra Dragons (Local): 18.02%; Sydney Roosters (Visit): 78.78%; Draw: 3.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 31.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 41.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +31.48%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.26%EV -9.01%E -1.79%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.49%EV -8.62%E -7.43%K -53.87%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25%EV +31.48%E +0.768%K +0.787%G +0.248% | 8.4% | 2026-04-24 02:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.38%EV -6.31%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.97%EV -10.98%E -9.72%K -84.48%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.66%EV +9.03%E +0.266%K +0.274%G +0.025% | 10.7% | 2026-04-23 04:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV +8.10%E +1.35%K +1.62%G +0.131% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.61%EV -11.77%E -10.51%K -98.09%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.15%EV -7.00%E -0.241%K -0.250%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-22 06:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV +8.10%E +1.35%K +1.62%G +0.131% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.61%EV -11.77%E -10.51%K -98.09%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.15%EV -7.00%E -0.241%K -0.250%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-22 06:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.06%EV -18.92%E -4.21%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 77.98%EV -13.35%E -12.13%K -133.46%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 2.96%EV -7.00%E -0.241%K -0.250%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-04-23 04:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.64%EV -11.72%E -2.39%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 79.28%EV -14.13%E -12.97%K -157.04%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.09%EV -10.21%E -0.365%K -0.378%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-04-24 02:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -4.51%E -0.851%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.47%EV -5.47%E -4.56%K -27.34%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.77%EV -19.83%E -0.793%K -0.826%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 20:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -4.51%E -0.851%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.47%EV -5.47%E -4.56%K -27.34%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.77%EV -19.83%E -0.793%K -0.826%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 20:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.37%EV -9.41%E -8.18%K -62.72%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -19.83%E -0.793%K -0.826%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-20 06:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-04-23 22:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21% | 4.4% | 2026-04-24 00:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 08:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 08:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 01:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 23:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 23:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 23:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 23:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 23:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 23:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 23:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 06:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 00:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 00:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04% | 5.5% | 2026-04-20 03:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 23:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 23:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.91I 20.37%NM 19.24% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.76% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 00:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 08:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.71I 21.23%NM 19.90% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.10% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 22:43 |