The School of Odds
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St George Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 04:02 UTC

Final: St George Illawarra Dragons 24–22 Parramatta Eels

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)

Prediction 37.54%2.66fair odd
EV -6.14%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -4.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.82%37.53%37.54%39.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.5043.48%41.62%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Parramatta Eels (Visit)

Prediction 58.47%1.71fair odd
EV -6.45%
Edge -4.03%
Kelly -10.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.73%58.41%58.47%59.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.541.6066.67%64.41%64.72%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.98%25.10fair odd
EV +15.56%
Edge +0.536%
Kelly +0.556%
Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.11%4.06%3.98%5.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.3820.5029.005.56%4.47%4.88%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St George Illawarra Dragons (Local): 37.54%; Parramatta Eels (Visit): 58.47%; Draw: 3.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.10. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.56%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.16%EV -13.65%E -5.93%K -10.50%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.73%EV -8.79%E -5.63%K -15.69%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.11%EV +15.56%E +0.536%K +0.556%G +0.086%11.0%2026-09-06 04:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -13.65%E -5.93%K -10.50%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.99%EV -9.96%E -6.46%K -18.44%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.19%EV +11.57%E +0.413%K +0.429%G +0.050%12.0%2026-09-06 04:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.77%EV -9.96%E -6.46%K -18.44%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV +7.59%E +0.281%K +0.292%G +0.022%8.6%2026-09-06 03:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.47%EV -10.54%E -6.89%K -19.89%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.26%EV -16.32%E -0.777%K -0.816%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 03:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.48%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -9.37%E -6.05%K -17.04%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -20.30%E -1.02%K -1.07%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-04 14:15
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -6.45%E -4.03%K -10.75%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -28.27%E -1.57%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-05 23:05
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -6.45%E -4.03%K -10.75%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -28.27%E -1.57%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-05 23:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.38%EV -12.90%E -5.56%K -9.77%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.81%EV -12.29%E -8.20%K -24.59%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.82%EV -28.27%E -1.57%K -1.66%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-06 04:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%0.5%2026-09-06 04:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%3.1%2026-09-06 03:20
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%5.3%2026-09-06 04:00
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-09-06 04:00
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-09-06 03:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-09-06 03:15
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-09-06 03:15
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-09-06 03:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-09-06 04:00
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-09-06 04:00
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%5.7%2026-09-06 02:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%5.8%2026-09-06 04:00
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%6.2%2026-09-06 02:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%6.7%2026-09-06 04:00
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%6.7%2026-09-06 04:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%6.7%2026-09-06 04:00
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%7.2%2026-09-06 04:00
Pinnacle🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.47%7.4%2026-09-06 03:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%9.8%2026-09-06 04:00