The School of Odds

St George Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 03:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -52.08%
Kelly -108.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%0.00%0.00%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.921.921.921.9252.08%52.08%52.08%52.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Parramatta Eels (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -52.08%
Kelly -108.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%0.00%0.00%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.921.921.921.9252.08%52.08%52.08%52.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%4.2%2026-07-05 12:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.