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St George Illawarra Dragons v Newcastle Knights
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)
assuming max odds 3.40
Newcastle Knights (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.40
Draw
assuming max odds 32.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St George Illawarra Dragons (Local): 27.51%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 68.77%; Draw: 3.72%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.07%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.60%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.51%EV -8.54%E -6.42%K -25.87%G +0.000% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 2.89%EV +19.07%E +0.596%K +0.615%G +0.117% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.09%EV -9.91%E -7.57%K -31.98%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.48%EV -3.26%E -0.125%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.72%EV -10.60%E -8.15%K -35.34%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -6.98%E -0.279%K -0.291%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-08 21:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.53%EV -11.29%E -8.75%K -38.93%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.84%EV -14.42%E -0.627%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.14%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 68.92%EV -13.35%E -10.60%K -51.35%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 3.95%EV -18.14%E -0.825%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.49%EV -3.72%E -2.66%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.72%EV -25.58%E -1.28%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.49%EV -3.72%E -2.66%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.72%EV -25.58%E -1.28%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.21% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.79% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 07:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 07:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 07:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 07:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 07:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 07:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 07:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 01:23 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 01:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 23:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 06:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 06:49 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 07:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51% | 5.8% | 2026-05-05 07:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51% | 5.8% | 2026-05-05 07:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 06:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 07:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 07:30 |