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St George Illawarra Dragons v Melbourne Storm

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 06:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)

Prediction 29.73%3.36fair odd
EV +1.69%
Edge +0.494%
Kelly +0.698%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.15%29.86%29.82%31.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.263.303.4233.33%30.68%30.30%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Storm (Visit)

Prediction 70.27%1.42fair odd
EV -0.924%
Edge -0.656%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.03%70.14%70.18%71.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.351.341.4175.19%74.34%74.63%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St George Illawarra Dragons (Local): 29.73%; Melbourne Storm (Visit): 70.27%. For St George Illawarra Dragons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.69%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 28.15%EV +1.69%E +0.494%K +0.698%G +0.012%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.85%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 06:24
SportsBet🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.30%EV +0.202%E +0.060%K +0.085%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.70%EV -6.55%E -4.92%K -19.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 06:24
PlayUp🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -0.392%E -0.117%K -0.167%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-14 06:25
TAB🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.88%E -0.569%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 06:15
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.88%E -0.569%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 05:59
Casumo🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.88%E -0.569%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 06:00
Grosvenor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.88%E -0.569%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 05:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.88%E -0.569%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 05:59
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.88%E -0.569%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 06:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.88%E -0.569%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 06:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.88%E -0.569%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.84%E -4.36%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 06:00
Dabble (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.88%E -0.569%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.55%E -4.92%K -19.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-13 20:44
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.37%E -1.04%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.55%E -4.92%K -19.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 05:59
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.37%E -1.04%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.55%E -4.92%K -19.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 06:00
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.85%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.44%E -3.26%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 06:25
Bet365 (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.85%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.44%E -3.26%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-09 21:46
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.85%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.14%E -3.81%K -14.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 20:00
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.85%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.14%E -3.81%K -14.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 04:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.85%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.14%E -3.81%K -14.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 03:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -7.83%E -2.52%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.14%E -3.81%K -14.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-13 09:50
Pinnacle🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -10.80%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -0.924%E -0.656%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%1.3%2026-03-14 06:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%6.3%2026-03-13 09:50
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%6.3%2026-03-13 09:49
Marathon Bet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 27.72%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.21%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%8.6%2026-03-14 06:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.44%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.93%10.7%2026-03-13 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.54%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%10.7%2026-03-12 15:00
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.54%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%10.7%2026-03-12 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.25%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%11.0%2026-03-10 03:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.83%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.17%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.00%13.6%2026-03-13 13:59