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St George Illawarra Dragons v Gold Coast Titans
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)
assuming max odds 1.87
Gold Coast Titans (Visit)
assuming max odds 2.10
Draw
assuming max odds 23.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St George Illawarra Dragons (Local): 49.79%; Gold Coast Titans (Visit): 45.87%; Draw: 4.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 23.00, with an expected value of -0.230%; they did not produce positive expected value.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.25%EV -6.88%E -3.68%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.75%EV -9.64%E -4.89%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.00%EV -0.230%E -0.010%K -0.010%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-23 09:24 |
| LeoVegas | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.13%EV -7.88%E -4.26%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.24%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.64%EV -13.24%E -0.662%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-26 03:49 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.99%EV -7.88%E -4.26%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.48%EV -10.56%E -5.41%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.53%EV -13.24%E -0.662%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-25 12:14 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -10.37%E -5.76%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.23%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.52%EV -13.24%E -0.662%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-26 03:49 |
| NordicBet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.85%EV -11.37%E -6.39%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -3.68%E -1.75%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV -4.57%E -0.208%K -0.218%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-26 03:59 |
| Betsson | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.85%EV -11.37%E -6.39%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -3.68%E -1.75%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV -4.57%E -0.208%K -0.218%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-26 04:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.30%EV -11.37%E -6.39%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.22%EV -9.18%E -4.64%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.48%EV -13.24%E -0.662%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-26 03:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.07%EV -11.37%E -6.39%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.24%EV -9.64%E -4.89%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.69%EV -17.58%E -0.925%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-26 03:49 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.07%EV -13.86%E -8.01%K -18.98%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.12%EV -11.93%E -6.22%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 4.81%EV -21.92%E -1.22%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-07-26 03:59 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35% | 1.4% | 2026-07-26 04:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25% | 3.9% | 2026-07-26 03:25 |
| SportsBet | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96% | 4.2% | 2026-07-25 04:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 22:34 |
| Neds | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64% | 4.9% | 2026-07-26 02:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64% | 4.9% | 2026-07-26 02:34 |
| PlayUp | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51% | 5.2% | 2026-07-26 03:35 |
| Bet Right | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00% | 5.3% | 2026-07-25 22:55 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 5.3% | 2026-07-22 06:25 |
| TABtouch | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 5.3% | 2026-07-24 03:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 5.3% | 2026-07-24 03:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 5.3% | 2026-07-24 03:55 |
| Casumo | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 5.3% | 2026-07-24 03:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 5.3% | 2026-07-24 03:55 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 5.3% | 2026-07-22 23:24 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37% | 5.6% | 2026-07-26 03:45 |
| TAB | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37% | 5.6% | 2026-07-26 02:35 |
| Unibet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68% | 5.9% | 2026-07-24 03:55 |
| BetRivers | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67% | 6.5% | 2026-07-24 03:55 |
| Grosvenor | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67% | 6.5% | 2026-07-24 03:55 |