St George Illawarra Dragons v Gold Coast Titans

2026-07-26 04:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

47%

49%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)

Prediction 47.25%2.12fair odd

EV -7.40%

Edge -3.77%

Kelly -7.70%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.86%47.25%47.25%47.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.861.911.921.9654%52%52%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Gold Coast Titans (Visit)

Prediction 48.75%2.05fair odd

EV -7.87%

Edge -4.16%

Kelly -8.84%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.75%48.75%48.75%50.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.721.791.771.8958%56%57%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 4.01%24.96fair odd

EV -7.87%

Edge -0.342%

Kelly -0.358%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 23.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.92%4.01%4.01%4.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

20.0021.7522.0023.005%5%5%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Winamax (DE)	1.96I 51.02%NM 46.00%EV -7.40%E -3.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 50.08%EV -12.26%E -6.81%K -15.32%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -7.87%E -0.342%K -0.358%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-07-15 02:59
Marathon Bet	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.87%E -4.03%K -8.28%G +0.000%	1.89I 52.91%NM 48.75%EV -7.87%E -4.16%K -8.84%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.01%EV -7.87%E -0.342%K -0.358%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-15 06:49
Unibet (FR)	1.88I 53.19%NM 45.86%EV -11.18%E -5.94%K -12.70%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 49.83%EV -15.67%E -9.06%K -21.46%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.31%EV -19.89%E -0.994%K -1.05%G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-07-15 02:59
Winamax (FR)	1.86I 53.76%NM 46.08%EV -12.12%E -6.52%K -14.09%G +0.000%	1.72I 58.14%NM 49.83%EV -16.16%E -9.39%K -22.44%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.08%EV -15.88%E -0.756%K -0.794%G +0.000%	16.7%	2026-07-15 02:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%	4.2%	2026-07-15 02:59