St George Illawarra Dragons v Dolphins

2026-07-31 08:00 UTC — NRL

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Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

26%

71%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)

Prediction 25.95%3.85fair odd

EV -3.98%

Edge -1.08%

Kelly -1.47%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.52%25.95%25.95%25.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.353.493.463.7030%29%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 71.07%1.41fair odd

EV -7.61%

Edge -5.86%

Kelly -25.37%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.14%71.07%71.07%71.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.221.251.251.3082%80%80%77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 2.98%33.55fair odd

EV -7.61%

Edge -0.246%

Kelly -0.254%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.98%2.98%2.98%4.11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

21.0025.0024.0031.005%4%4%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Winamax (DE)	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -3.98%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 71.99%EV -10.45%E -8.30%K -40.21%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.49%EV -22.51%E -0.866%K -0.901%G +0.000%	10.2%	2026-07-22 07:54
Marathon Bet	3.56I 28.09%NM 25.95%EV -7.61%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.07%EV -7.61%E -5.86%K -25.37%G +0.000%	31.00I 3.23%NM 2.98%EV -7.61%E -0.246%K -0.254%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-22 04:44
Unibet (FR)	3.35I 29.85%NM 25.75%EV -13.06%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 70.14%EV -12.59%E -10.23%K -54.72%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.11%EV -37.41%E -1.78%K -1.87%G +0.000%	15.9%	2026-07-22 07:19
Winamax (FR)	3.35I 29.85%NM 25.65%EV -13.06%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 70.44%EV -13.30%E -10.90%K -60.44%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 3.91%EV -34.43%E -1.57%K -1.64%G +0.000%	16.4%	2026-07-22 07:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%	5.3%	2026-07-22 04:45