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St George Illawarra Dragons v Dolphins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)
assuming max odds 5.50
Dolphins (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.20
Draw
assuming max odds 40.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St George Illawarra Dragons (Local): 18.83%; Dolphins (Visit): 77.84%; Draw: 3.33%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 30.05. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 40.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +33.12%.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -11.51%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.53%EV -10.48%E -9.11%K -69.87%G +0.000% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.26%EV +33.12%E +0.828%K +0.849%G +0.281% | 10.7% | 2026-07-31 07:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.40%EV -0.208%E -0.039%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.18%EV -10.48%E -9.11%K -69.87%G +0.000% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.43%EV +26.46%E +0.696%K +0.715%G +0.189% | 8.5% | 2026-07-31 07:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV +3.56%E +0.647%K +0.791%G +0.028% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.03%EV -9.70%E -8.36%K -60.64%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.09%EV -0.160%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-31 07:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -9.62%E -2.00%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.96%EV -8.92%E -7.63%K -52.49%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.04%EV -0.160%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-31 08:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 17.97%EV -6.80%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 78.73%EV -12.04%E -10.65%K -92.59%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.30%EV -10.14%E -0.376%K -0.390%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-31 07:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.72%EV -7.74%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 78.94%EV -14.37%E -13.07%K -143.72%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.34%EV -13.47%E -0.518%K -0.539%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-07-31 07:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -6.59%E -5.49%K -32.94%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%EV -16.80%E -0.672%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-31 07:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -6.59%E -5.49%K -32.94%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%EV -16.80%E -0.672%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-31 07:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -11.51%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.18%EV -8.92%E -7.63%K -52.49%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -16.80%E -0.672%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-31 01:29 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36% | 4.2% | 2026-07-31 07:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 4.7% | 2026-07-31 06:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 4.7% | 2026-07-31 06:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 4.7% | 2026-07-31 07:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 4.7% | 2026-07-31 07:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34% | 5.1% | 2026-07-31 07:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34% | 5.1% | 2026-07-31 07:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34% | 5.1% | 2026-07-31 07:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34% | 5.1% | 2026-07-31 07:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34% | 5.1% | 2026-07-31 07:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71% | 5.1% | 2026-07-31 07:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 07:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 07:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 07:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 07:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 07:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 07:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40% | 6.3% | 2026-07-31 06:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.32% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.68% | 9.0% | 2026-07-31 08:00 |
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