Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St George Illawarra Dragons v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

2026-08-09 06:05 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

20%

78%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)

Prediction 19.54%5.12fair odd

EV -4.25%

Edge -0.867%

Kelly -1.09%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.44%19.54%19.54%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.204.514.474.9023.81%22.16%22.35%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 77.83%1.28fair odd

EV -8.16%

Edge -6.91%

Kelly -45.31%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.04%77.83%77.83%78.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.151.141.1889.29%87.34%87.72%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.62%38.11fair odd

EV -8.16%

Edge -0.233%

Kelly -0.240%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 35.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.62%2.62%2.62%3.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

23.0028.2527.5035.004.35%3.54%3.64%2.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Winamax (DE)	4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -4.25%E -0.867%K -1.09%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 78.55%EV -10.49%E -9.12%K -69.94%G +0.000%	30.00I 3.33%NM 3.01%EV -21.28%E -0.709%K -0.734%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-07-29 07:15
Marathon Bet	4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.20%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 77.83%EV -8.16%E -6.91%K -45.31%G +0.000%	35.00I 2.86%NM 2.62%EV -8.16%E -0.233%K -0.240%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-07-29 05:24
Unibet (FR)	4.25I 23.53%NM 20.22%EV -16.95%E -3.99%K -5.22%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 76.04%EV -12.05%E -10.66%K -92.67%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.74%EV -39.64%E -1.72%K -1.80%G +0.000%	16.4%	2026-07-29 07:19
Winamax (FR)	4.20I 23.81%NM 20.33%EV -17.93%E -4.27%K -5.60%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 76.25%EV -12.83%E -11.45%K -106.88%G +0.000%	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.42%EV -34.40%E -1.38%K -1.43%G +0.000%	17.1%	2026-07-29 07:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%	5.1%	2026-07-29 05:24