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St George Illawarra Dragons v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)
assuming max odds 6.00
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.15
Draw
assuming max odds 41.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St George Illawarra Dragons (Local): 15.49%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 81.55%; Draw: 2.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 33.71. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 41.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.61%.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -7.08%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.24%EV -7.85%E -6.95%K -60.40%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.27%EV +21.61%E +0.527%K +0.540%G +0.117% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 06:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.49%EV -7.85%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.27%EV -8.67%E -7.74%K -72.23%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25%EV +21.61%E +0.527%K +0.540%G +0.117% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -14.82%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.33%EV -9.48%E -8.54%K -86.21%G +0.000% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.26%EV +18.65%E +0.466%K +0.478%G +0.089% | 10.8% | 2026-08-09 06:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -8.62%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.51%EV -7.85%E -6.95%K -60.40%G +0.000% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV -5.08%E -0.159%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-09 06:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.31%EV -11.72%E -2.06%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 81.57%EV -12.75%E -11.91%K -182.08%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.12%EV -16.95%E -0.605%K -0.628%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-09 06:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.87%EV -17.92%E -3.38%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.82%EV -8.67%E -7.74%K -72.23%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.31%EV -19.91%E -0.738%K -0.766%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-09 02:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.08%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.93%EV -7.04%E -6.17%K -50.26%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -25.85%E -1.03%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 06:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.08%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.93%EV -7.04%E -6.17%K -50.26%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -25.85%E -1.03%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 06:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -22.56%E -4.51%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.37%EV -6.22%E -5.41%K -41.48%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -25.85%E -1.03%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-04 23:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 0.2% | 2026-08-09 06:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 05:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 05:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 05:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 05:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.84I 17.12%NM 16.33% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.67% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 06:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26% | 5.0% | 2026-08-09 04:10 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 00:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 01:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 04:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 04:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 04:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 04:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 04:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 05:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 06:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69% | 5.7% | 2026-08-09 04:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69% | 5.7% | 2026-08-09 04:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 04:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 04:24 |
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