The School of Odds
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St George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 09:38 UTC

Final: St George Illawarra Dragons 14–44 Canterbury Bulldogs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St George Illawarra Dragons (Local)

Prediction 31.72%3.15fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.91%31.88%31.72%33.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.852.873.0037.04%35.04%34.90%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 64.24%1.56fair odd
EV -6.85%
Edge -4.72%
Kelly -15.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.13%64.01%64.13%65.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.421.4573.53%70.73%70.18%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.03%24.80fair odd
EV +12.90%
Edge +0.461%
Kelly +0.478%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.30%4.11%4.15%5.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.1320.5028.005.56%4.52%4.88%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St George Illawarra Dragons (Local): 31.72%; Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit): 64.24%; Draw: 4.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.80. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 28.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.90%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.64%E -3.00%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.62%EV -8.13%E -5.69%K -18.91%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.30%EV +12.90%E +0.461%K +0.478%G +0.062%8.2%2026-08-22 03:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.00%E -2.76%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.49%EV -11.34%E -8.22%K -29.85%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.35%EV +8.87%E +0.329%K +0.341%G +0.030%10.7%2026-08-22 09:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -9.59%E -3.36%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 65.21%EV -11.98%E -8.75%K -32.39%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.44%EV +4.84%E +0.186%K +0.194%G +0.009%11.9%2026-08-22 09:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.72%EV -12.76%E -4.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.13%EV -12.63%E -9.28%K -35.08%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.15%EV -15.32%E -0.730%K -0.766%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-22 09:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -14.35%E -5.31%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -6.85%E -4.72%K -15.21%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -19.36%E -0.968%K -1.02%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-17 06:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -12.76%E -4.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.85%EV -8.77%E -6.18%K -20.89%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.70%EV -23.39%E -1.23%K -1.30%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-21 09:55
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -4.83%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -6.85%E -4.72%K -15.21%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -27.42%E -1.52%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 08:10
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -4.83%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -6.85%E -4.72%K -15.21%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -27.42%E -1.52%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-21 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%1.2%2026-08-22 09:35
Pinnacle🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%4.3%2026-08-22 09:30
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%4.7%2026-08-22 09:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%5.0%2026-08-22 01:19
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%5.0%2026-08-22 03:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%5.0%2026-08-22 03:05
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%5.0%2026-08-22 03:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%5.0%2026-08-22 03:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%5.0%2026-08-22 03:05
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-08-22 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-08-22 09:30
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-08-22 09:30
TAB🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%5.3%2026-08-22 09:35
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%5.4%2026-08-22 09:34
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%5.5%2026-08-22 03:05
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%5.5%2026-08-22 03:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-08-22 09:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%6.1%2026-08-21 09:40
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%6.6%2026-08-22 03:05