The School of Odds
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South Sydney Rabbitohs v St George Illawarra Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 07:31 UTC

Final: South Sydney Rabbitohs 30–12 St George Illawarra Dragons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 72.78%1.37fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -12.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.63%72.82%72.78%76.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.3281.97%80.16%80.32%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 23.74%4.21fair odd
EV +4.47%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.13%23.58%23.74%24.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.014.004.4026.67%24.94%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.48%28.73fair odd
EV +21.81%
Edge +0.623%
Kelly +0.641%
Growth +0.140%

assuming max odds 35.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.66%3.60%3.48%4.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0029.3830.5035.005.00%3.40%3.28%2.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local): 72.78%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 23.74%; Draw: 3.48%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.73. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 35.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.81%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.21%EV -11.21%E -9.19%K -50.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV +4.47%E +1.02%K +1.31%G +0.059%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.66%EV +21.81%E +0.623%K +0.641%G +0.140%7.6%2026-04-18 07:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.89%EV -11.21%E -9.19%K -50.96%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV +2.80%E +0.648%K +0.842%G +0.024%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.72%EV +18.33%E +0.539%K +0.555%G +0.102%8.0%2026-04-18 07:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.07%EV -8.30%E -6.59%K -31.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -9.78%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV +18.33%E +0.539%K +0.555%G +0.102%8.6%2026-04-18 07:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.15%EV -9.76%E -7.87%K -40.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -10.97%E -2.92%K -3.99%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.67%EV +18.33%E +0.539%K +0.555%G +0.102%10.3%2026-04-18 07:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.71%EV -9.03%E -7.22%K -36.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -9.78%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.37%EV -6.04%E -0.224%K -0.232%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 07:30
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.50%EV -9.03%E -7.22%K -36.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -5.03%E -1.26%K -1.68%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -9.52%E -0.366%K -0.381%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 07:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.87%EV -11.21%E -9.19%K -50.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -5.03%E -1.26%K -1.68%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -13.00%E -0.520%K -0.541%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-18 07:29
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -5.03%E -1.26%K -1.68%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV -30.40%E -1.52%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-18 07:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19%0.5%2026-04-18 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.40%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.60%3.9%2026-04-18 07:29
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%4.8%2026-04-18 07:30
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%4.8%2026-04-18 07:29
TAB🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-04-18 07:30
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-04-18 07:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-04-18 07:30
SportsBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%5.3%2026-04-18 07:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%5.4%2026-04-18 07:29
BetRivers🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%5.6%2026-04-18 07:27
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%5.6%2026-04-18 07:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%5.9%2026-04-18 07:30