The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Parramatta Eels

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 09:41 UTC

Final: South Sydney Rabbitohs 28–24 Parramatta Eels

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 68.94%1.45fair odd
EV -7.63%
Edge -5.69%
Kelly -22.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.25%68.96%69.21%71.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.301.301.3479.37%76.85%76.92%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Parramatta Eels (Visit)

Prediction 27.17%3.68fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.603%
Kelly -0.835%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%27.09%26.83%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.383.383.6031.25%29.57%29.63%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.89%25.71fair odd
EV +20.59%
Edge +0.664%
Kelly +0.686%
Growth +0.141%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%3.95%3.96%5.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0024.3824.0031.005.56%4.10%4.17%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local): 68.94%; Parramatta Eels (Visit): 27.17%; Draw: 3.89%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.71. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.59%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.70%EV -7.63%E -5.69%K -22.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -11.68%E -3.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +20.59%E +0.664%K +0.686%G +0.141%8.6%2026-08-08 09:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.95%EV -11.07%E -8.58%K -38.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -8.96%E -2.68%K -3.81%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.11%EV +12.81%E +0.442%K +0.458%G +0.059%10.8%2026-08-08 09:39
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.09%EV -11.76%E -9.19%K -42.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -2.17%E -0.603%K -0.835%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV -2.75%E -0.110%K -0.114%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 09:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.25%EV -9.01%E -6.82%K -28.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -13.04%E -4.08%K -5.93%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -2.75%E -0.110%K -0.114%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-04 23:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.66%EV -11.07%E -8.58%K -38.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.91%EV -10.53%E -0.458%K -0.478%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-07 10:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.21%EV -9.70%E -7.40%K -31.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.12%EV -14.42%E -0.655%K -0.687%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 09:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 69.21%EV -13.14%E -10.43%K -50.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.83%EV -11.68%E -3.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.96%EV -14.42%E -0.655%K -0.687%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-08 09:30
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -9.01%E -6.82%K -28.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -2.17%E -0.603%K -0.835%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -29.98%E -1.67%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29%1.4%2026-08-08 09:30
Bet Right🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%4.5%2026-08-08 09:30
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%4.6%2026-08-08 09:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%4.7%2026-08-08 09:39
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%4.7%2026-08-08 09:39
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%4.8%2026-08-08 08:25
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-08-08 08:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-08-08 04:30
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-08-08 09:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-08-08 09:40
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-08-08 09:35
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-08-08 09:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%6.1%2026-08-05 06:44
Casumo🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%6.1%2026-08-08 09:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%6.1%2026-08-08 09:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%6.1%2026-08-08 09:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.37%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.63%6.2%2026-08-06 08:40
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-08-08 09:40
Grosvenor🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-08-08 09:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.37%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%9.7%2026-08-08 09:40

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.