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South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 09:50 UTC

Final: South Sydney Rabbitohs 10–20 Newcastle Knights

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 68.05%1.47fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -8.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.90%68.25%68.05%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4273.53%71.57%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 31.95%3.13fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.413%
Kelly -0.611%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%31.75%31.95%33.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.962.953.0934.84%33.84%33.90%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local): 68.05%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 31.95%. For Newcastle Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.09, with an expected value of -1.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.90%EV -3.37%E -2.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -8.31%E -2.89%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 06:34
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 08:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 08:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 08:40
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 08:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 06:05
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 06:05
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 06:09
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 10:30
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 08:14
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.35%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 08:09
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.35%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 08:09
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.73%E -3.38%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.99%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 08:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.41%E -3.89%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 01:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.09%E -4.41%K -16.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 07:34
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.44%EV -7.45%E -5.48%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.56%EV -1.28%E -0.413%K -0.611%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 09:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%1.2%2026-09-09 10:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.63%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.48%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.89%8.1%2026-09-09 06:14
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%8.2%2026-09-09 05:59
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%8.2%2026-09-09 06:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.67%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.12%10.3%2026-09-09 10:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.54%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.15%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.31%10.6%2026-09-09 10:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.06%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.42%13.0%2026-09-09 10:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.36%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.50%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.14%15.0%2026-09-09 13:10