The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

South Sydney Rabbitohs v New Zealand Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 07:33 UTC

Final: South Sydney Rabbitohs 26–45 New Zealand Warriors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 39.34%2.54fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.48%39.35%39.34%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.342.4046.51%43.78%42.74%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 56.11%1.78fair odd
EV -5.74%
Edge -3.42%
Kelly -8.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.38%56.25%56.11%58.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.621.6864.52%61.46%61.73%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.55%21.97fair odd
EV +27.45%
Edge +0.980%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.279%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.29%4.40%4.55%5.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.0019.0028.005.56%4.76%5.26%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local): 39.34%; New Zealand Warriors (Visit): 56.11%; Draw: 4.55%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.97. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 28.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.45%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.42%EV -7.94%E -3.39%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.29%EV -9.67%E -6.01%K -15.85%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV +27.45%E +0.980%K +1.02%G +0.279%8.4%2026-08-22 06:38
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.72%EV -15.41%E -7.17%K -13.40%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.69%EV -7.99%E -4.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV +13.79%E +0.552%K +0.575%G +0.079%11.5%2026-08-22 07:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.48%EV -5.58%E -2.32%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -13.04%E -8.41%K -23.70%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -8.97%E -0.448%K -0.472%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-18 09:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.75%EV -11.48%E -5.10%K -9.18%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.67%E -6.01%K -15.85%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.71%EV -13.52%E -0.712%K -0.751%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 07:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.98%EV -15.41%E -7.17%K -13.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.38%EV -9.11%E -5.62%K -14.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.64%EV -13.52%E -0.712%K -0.751%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-22 07:30
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -7.54%E -3.21%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.30%EV -5.74%E -3.42%K -8.44%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -18.07%E -1.00%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 07:09
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -7.54%E -3.21%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.30%EV -5.74%E -3.42%K -8.44%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -18.07%E -1.00%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 07:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86%1.1%2026-08-22 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%3.4%2026-08-22 07:24
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%3.8%2026-08-22 07:29
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%4.7%2026-08-22 07:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-08-22 07:20
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-08-22 07:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-08-22 06:04
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-08-22 06:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-08-22 06:59
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-08-22 07:19
SportsBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%5.4%2026-08-22 07:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%5.4%2026-08-22 07:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%5.4%2026-08-22 06:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%5.4%2026-08-22 06:59
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%5.4%2026-08-22 06:59
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%5.4%2026-08-22 06:59
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%5.8%2026-08-22 07:00
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%5.8%2026-08-22 06:59
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%6.6%2026-08-22 07:00
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 41.82%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%6.8%2026-08-22 07:29