The School of Odds
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South Sydney Rabbitohs v Melbourne Storm

Kickoff: 2026-07-24 10:05 UTC

Final: South Sydney Rabbitohs 28–26 Melbourne Storm

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 45.16%2.21fair odd
EV -7.43%
Edge -3.63%
Kelly -7.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.64%45.06%45.16%45.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.012.002.0551.81%49.72%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Storm (Visit)

Prediction 50.87%1.97fair odd
EV -6.91%
Edge -3.78%
Kelly -8.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.19%50.78%50.87%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.791.801.8357.80%56.00%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.98%25.15fair odd
EV -0.601%
Edge -0.024%
Kelly -0.025%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 25.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.65%4.16%3.98%5.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.0020.0025.005.56%4.76%5.00%4.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local): 45.16%; Melbourne Storm (Visit): 50.87%; Draw: 3.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 25.00, with an expected value of -0.601%; they did not produce positive expected value.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -7.43%E -3.63%K -7.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.40%EV -6.91%E -3.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -20.48%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 23:04
NordicBet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.64%EV -7.43%E -3.63%K -7.08%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.28%EV -7.42%E -4.08%K -9.05%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.08%EV -28.43%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 10:00
Betsson2.05I 48.78%NM 44.64%EV -7.43%E -3.63%K -7.08%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.28%EV -7.42%E -4.08%K -9.05%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.08%EV -28.43%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 10:00
Marathon Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.18%EV -7.88%E -3.86%K -7.58%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.64%EV -7.42%E -4.08%K -9.05%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.19%EV -12.53%E -0.570%K -0.597%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 07:25
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.64%EV -9.69%E -4.84%K -9.69%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.71%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.65%EV -0.601%E -0.024%K -0.025%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-21 11:05
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.79%EV -9.69%E -4.84%K -9.69%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.48%EV -11.49%E -6.60%K -15.52%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.73%EV -4.58%E -0.191%K -0.199%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-24 10:00
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.79%EV -9.69%E -4.84%K -9.69%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.48%EV -11.49%E -6.60%K -15.52%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.73%EV -4.58%E -0.191%K -0.199%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-24 10:00
Unibet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 45.09%EV -10.59%E -5.35%K -10.81%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.44%EV -9.96%E -5.63%K -12.94%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.46%EV -20.48%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-23 23:05
NetBet (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.66%K -13.82%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.19%EV -12.00%E -6.93%K -16.43%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.82%EV -28.43%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-24 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78%1.7%2026-07-24 10:00
Pinnacle2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%3.9%2026-07-24 09:20
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%4.3%2026-07-24 09:50
BetOnline.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%4.6%2026-07-24 09:50
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-07-24 09:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-07-24 09:35
Unibet (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%5.2%2026-07-24 09:00
Unibet (NL)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%5.2%2026-07-24 09:00
TABtouch2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%5.2%2026-07-24 09:00
Casumo2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%5.2%2026-07-24 09:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%5.2%2026-07-24 09:00
TAB1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-07-24 09:35
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-07-24 09:45
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-07-24 09:40
Bet Right1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-07-24 09:45
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-07-24 09:55
Dabble (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-07-24 07:00
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%6.0%2026-07-24 09:00
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%6.0%2026-07-24 09:00
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%6.3%2026-07-24 09:00