South Sydney Rabbitohs v Melbourne Storm

2026-07-24 10:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

59%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 58.77%1.70fair odd

EV -5.97%

Edge -3.73%

Kelly -9.95%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.14%58.77%58.77%63.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.381.491.491.6072%67%67%63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Melbourne Storm (Visit)

Prediction 37.32%2.68fair odd

EV +2.62%

Edge +0.954%

Kelly +1.50%

Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.87%37.32%37.32%37.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.462.562.522.7541%39%40%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 3.91%25.56fair odd

EV +13.48%

Edge +0.465%

Kelly +0.481%

Growth +0.065%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.17%3.91%3.91%4.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

19.0021.8320.0029.005%5%5%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.40%EV -8.91%E -5.75%K -16.20%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 37.43%EV -8.20%E -3.33%K -5.62%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV +13.48%E +0.465%K +0.481%G +0.065%	8.6%	2026-07-15 06:59
Winamax (DE)	1.43I 69.93%NM 63.20%EV -15.96%E -11.16%K -37.12%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV +2.62%E +0.954%K +1.50%G +0.039%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.93%EV -10.00%E -0.435%K -0.455%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-07-15 07:05
NordicBet	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -6.71%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -21.74%E -1.09%K -1.14%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-15 07:05
Betsson	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -6.71%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -21.74%E -1.09%K -1.14%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-15 07:05
Winamax (FR)	1.38I 72.46%NM 62.10%EV -18.90%E -13.69%K -49.73%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 33.61%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.29%EV -21.74%E -1.09%K -1.14%G +0.000%	16.7%	2026-07-15 07:04
Unibet (FR)	1.39I 71.94%NM 62.20%EV -18.31%E -13.17%K -46.95%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 33.25%EV -2.97%E -1.14%K -1.86%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.55%EV -25.65%E -1.35%K -1.43%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-07-15 07:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%	2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%	5.0%	2026-07-15 06:54