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South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 05:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 48.64%2.06fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -5.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.35%48.57%48.64%49.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.861.831.9556.18%53.76%54.64%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 46.58%2.15fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -4.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.49%46.59%46.58%47.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.971.962.0554.05%50.82%51.02%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.78%20.92fair odd
EV +24.25%
Edge +0.933%
Kelly +0.970%
Growth +0.235%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.54%4.84%4.78%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0019.1119.0026.006.67%5.23%5.26%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local): 48.64%; Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit): 46.58%; Draw: 4.78%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.92. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.25%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.49%EV -9.52%E -5.12%K -11.07%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.97%EV -8.71%E -4.44%K -9.07%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV +24.25%E +0.933%K +0.970%G +0.235%8.6%2026-04-03 04:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.62%EV -11.47%E -6.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.08%EV -8.71%E -4.44%K -9.07%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%EV +0.359%E +0.017%K +0.018%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-03 04:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.39%EV -11.47%E -6.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.33%EV -9.64%E -4.97%K -10.25%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.28%EV +0.359%E +0.017%K +0.018%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-03 04:50
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.72%EV -10.98%E -6.00%K -13.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.49%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -9.20%E -0.484%K -0.511%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 00:03
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.72%EV -10.98%E -6.00%K -13.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.49%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -9.20%E -0.484%K -0.511%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 00:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.64%EV -13.42%E -7.54%K -17.20%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 46.80%EV -13.83%E -7.48%K -16.27%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.56%EV -9.20%E -0.484%K -0.511%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-03 05:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.35%EV -7.58%E -3.99%K -8.42%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.35%EV -11.50%E -6.05%K -12.78%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.29%EV -18.76%E -1.10%K -1.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-01 06:14
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.05%EV -5.15%E -2.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -4.52%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -28.32%E -1.89%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-03 04:50
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.05%EV -5.15%E -2.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -4.52%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -28.32%E -1.89%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-03 04:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%0.6%2026-04-03 05:00
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%3.9%2026-04-03 04:40
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%4.4%2026-04-03 05:00
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%4.5%2026-04-03 04:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Neds🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-04-01 00:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-04-03 04:50
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%5.0%2026-04-03 04:50
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-04-03 03:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-04-03 04:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-04-01 00:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-04-03 05:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%5.6%2026-04-03 04:25
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%5.6%2026-04-03 04:25
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%5.6%2026-04-03 04:25
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%5.6%2026-04-03 04:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%5.6%2026-04-03 04:25
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%5.6%2026-04-03 04:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%5.6%2026-04-03 04:25
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%5.6%2026-04-03 04:55
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%5.9%2026-04-03 04:55