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South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 05:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 60.03%1.67fair odd
EV -0.943%
Edge -0.572%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.09%60.42%60.03%62.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.541.541.6568.97%65.04%65.15%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 36.61%2.73fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.430%
Kelly -0.683%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.67%36.25%36.61%38.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.542.552.7042.55%39.43%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.36%29.77fair odd
EV +7.48%
Edge +0.234%
Kelly +0.241%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.88%3.33%3.36%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0024.7524.0032.005.56%4.04%4.17%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local): 60.03%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 36.61%; Draw: 3.36%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.48%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.82%EV -7.55%E -4.90%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.30%EV -9.58%E -3.88%K -6.52%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +7.48%E +0.234%K +0.241%G +0.018%8.5%2026-04-11 04:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.85%EV -8.75%E -5.75%K -16.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.06%EV -13.97%E -5.95%K -10.35%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.08%EV -2.60%E -0.090%K -0.093%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 05:00
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.31%EV -6.95%E -4.48%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.95%EV -4.82%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%EV -16.03%E -0.641%K -0.668%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 05:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.69%EV -12.95%E -8.93%K -28.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.67%EV -1.16%E -0.430%K -0.683%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV -16.03%E -0.641%K -0.668%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 04:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.42%EV -8.15%E -5.32%K -15.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -4.82%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV -22.75%E -0.989%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 05:00
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.06%EV -9.95%E -6.63%K -19.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.96%EV -4.09%E -1.56%K -2.52%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -22.75%E -0.989%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 05:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.67%EV -6.35%E -4.07%K -11.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -10.31%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -22.75%E -0.989%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 05:00
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -0.943%E -0.572%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -8.48%E -3.39%K -5.66%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -39.54%E -2.20%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 05:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.28%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.72%0.1%2026-04-11 05:00
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%4.1%2026-04-11 04:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%4.5%2026-04-11 05:00
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%4.5%2026-04-11 04:59
PlayUp🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%4.5%2026-04-11 05:00
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-04-11 04:59
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-04-11 05:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-04-11 05:00
SportsBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%5.3%2026-04-11 05:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-11 05:00
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-11 05:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-04-11 05:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-04-11 05:00
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-04-11 04:59
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-04-11 05:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-04-11 05:00
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-04-11 05:00
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-04-11 05:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%6.0%2026-04-11 05:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%6.2%2026-04-11 04:59
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.47%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%7.4%2026-04-11 05:00