The School of Odds
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South Sydney Rabbitohs v Brisbane Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-06-11 09:51 UTC

Final: South Sydney Rabbitohs 48–6 Brisbane Broncos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 64.33%1.55fair odd
EV -4.78%
Edge -3.23%
Kelly -9.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.01%63.67%64.33%64.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.4871.43%69.20%69.20%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 32.31%3.10fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.31%32.62%32.31%35.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.812.843.0039.22%35.65%35.21%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.36%29.76fair odd
EV +7.53%
Edge +0.235%
Kelly +0.243%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.83%3.72%3.36%5.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0025.5027.5032.005.56%3.92%3.64%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local): 64.33%; Brisbane Broncos (Visit): 32.31%; Draw: 3.36%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.76. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.53%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.38%EV -6.71%E -4.63%K -14.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -16.01%E -6.16%K -10.00%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.83%EV +7.53%E +0.235%K +0.243%G +0.018%10.6%2026-06-11 09:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.92%EV -8.64%E -6.09%K -20.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -6.96%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +0.807%E +0.027%K +0.028%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-11 09:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.01%EV -7.36%E -5.11%K -16.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -17.62%E -6.91%K -11.37%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 2.98%EV +0.807%E +0.027%K +0.028%G +0.000%12.0%2026-06-11 09:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.27%EV -9.93%E -7.09%K -24.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.13%EV -9.55%E -3.41%K -5.30%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -15.99%E -0.640%K -0.666%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-11 09:49
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -4.78%E -3.23%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -3.08%E -1.03%K -1.54%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -39.52%E -2.20%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-11 09:50
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -4.78%E -3.23%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -3.08%E -1.03%K -1.54%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -39.52%E -2.20%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-11 09:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-06-11 09:50
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%3.7%2026-06-11 09:49
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%3.8%2026-06-11 09:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%3.8%2026-06-11 09:49
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.76%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.24%4.6%2026-06-11 09:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%4.9%2026-06-11 09:50
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%4.9%2026-06-11 09:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%4.9%2026-06-11 09:49
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-06-11 09:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-06-11 09:49
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-06-11 09:50
PlayUp🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%5.4%2026-06-11 09:49
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-11 09:48
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-11 09:50
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-11 09:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-11 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-11 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-11 09:50
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-11 09:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%6.1%2026-06-11 09:50
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%7.0%2026-06-11 09:50