The School of Odds
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Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 06:07 UTC

Final: Penrith Panthers 38–10 Wests Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penrith Panthers (Local)

Prediction 83.94%1.19fair odd
EV -6.83%
Edge -6.15%
Kelly -62.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.13%84.08%84.06%85.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.081.081.1198.04%92.38%92.17%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 12.99%7.70fair odd
EV -5.80%
Edge -0.800%
Kelly -0.928%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.00%12.94%13.03%14.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.256.927.007.2516.00%14.45%14.29%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.07%32.56fair odd
EV +41.26%
Edge +0.897%
Kelly +0.917%
Growth +0.378%

assuming max odds 46.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.00%2.98%2.91%3.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
25.0032.0031.5046.004.00%3.13%3.17%2.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penrith Panthers (Local): 83.94%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 12.99%; Draw: 3.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 32.56. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 46.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +41.26%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.06%EV -9.35%E -8.66%K -116.87%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.94%EV -7.75%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.00%EV +41.26%E +0.897%K +0.917%G +0.378%8.9%2026-09-06 05:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.22%EV -8.51%E -7.81%K -94.56%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -18.79%E -3.01%K -3.58%G +0.000%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.27%EV +22.84%E +0.571%K +0.586%G +0.134%10.2%2026-09-06 06:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.39%EV -6.83%E -6.15%K -62.10%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -12.29%E -1.82%K -2.14%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.89%EV -1.73%E -0.054%K -0.056%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 06:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 85.28%EV -14.39%E -14.10%K -719.29%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.00%EV -5.80%E -0.800%K -0.928%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.72%EV -1.73%E -0.054%K -0.056%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-06 06:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.34%EV -11.03%E -10.40%K -183.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -9.05%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.88%EV -4.80%E -0.155%K -0.160%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 05:50
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.13%EV -6.83%E -6.15%K -62.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -9.05%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -23.23%E -0.929%K -0.968%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-05 23:05
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.13%EV -6.83%E -6.15%K -62.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -9.05%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -23.23%E -0.929%K -0.968%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.51%EV -9.35%E -8.66%K -116.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -9.05%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -23.23%E -0.929%K -0.968%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-04 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28%1.8%2026-09-06 06:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 89.02%8.76I 11.42%NM 10.98%4.0%2026-09-06 05:55
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%5.1%2026-09-06 05:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-09-06 05:40
PlayUp🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-09-06 06:05
Bet Right🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-09-06 05:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%5.1%2026-09-06 05:55
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%5.2%2026-09-06 04:55
Neds🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%5.5%2026-09-01 07:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%5.5%2026-09-01 07:40
BetRivers🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%6.0%2026-09-06 05:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%6.9%2026-09-06 06:05
Casumo🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%6.9%2026-09-06 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%6.9%2026-09-06 06:05
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%6.9%2026-09-06 06:05
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%8.0%2026-09-06 06:05
TABtouch🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%8.0%2026-09-06 06:05
Pinnacle🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.35%5.82I 17.18%NM 15.65%9.8%2026-09-06 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.50%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.50%10.3%2026-09-06 06:05