Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penrith Panthers v Sydney Roosters

2026-08-13 09:50 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

60%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penrith Panthers (Local)

Prediction 60.20%1.66fair odd

EV -7.90%

Edge -5.16%

Kelly -14.90%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.02%60.20%60.20%60.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.491.481.5368.97%67.34%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 36.26%2.76fair odd

EV -7.90%

Edge -3.11%

Kelly -5.13%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.03%36.26%36.26%36.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.352.432.422.5442.55%41.07%41.24%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.54%28.23fair odd

EV -7.90%

Edge -0.304%

Kelly -0.316%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.54%3.54%3.54%4.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

20.0022.5022.0026.005.00%4.44%4.55%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Penrith Panthers (Local): 60.20%; Sydney Roosters (Visit): 36.26%; Draw: 3.54%. For Penrith Panthers (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.53, with an expected value of -7.90%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.20%EV -7.90%E -5.16%K -14.90%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 36.26%EV -7.90%E -3.11%K -5.13%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV -7.90%E -0.304%K -0.316%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-06 06:19
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.05%EV -9.70%E -6.47%K -19.41%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.03%EV -9.35%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -18.53%E -0.805%K -0.842%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-08-06 06:50
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 59.02%EV -12.11%E -8.30%K -26.33%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 36.67%EV -14.79%E -6.29%K -10.95%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.31%EV -29.15%E -1.46%K -1.53%G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-08-06 06:50
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 59.31%EV -12.71%E -8.77%K -28.25%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 36.60%EV -14.79%E -6.29%K -10.95%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.10%EV -25.61%E -1.22%K -1.28%G +0.000%	16.3%	2026-08-06 06:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%	5.0%	2026-08-06 01:39