The School of Odds
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Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 08:25 UTC

Final: Penrith Panthers 28–6 St George Illawarra Dragons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penrith Panthers (Local)

Prediction 90.43%1.11fair odd
EV -5.95%
Edge -5.72%
Kelly -148.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.53%90.50%90.43%93.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.011.04100.00%98.18%99.01%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 7.53%13.27fair odd
EV +35.60%
Edge +1.98%
Kelly +2.09%
Growth +0.745%

assuming max odds 18.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.37%7.36%7.53%11.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.2512.5012.0018.0013.79%8.00%8.33%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.04%49.11fair odd
EV +22.18%
Edge +0.370%
Kelly +0.376%
Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 60.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.61%2.15%2.04%2.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
31.0046.2950.0060.003.23%2.16%2.00%1.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penrith Panthers (Local): 90.43%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 7.53%; Draw: 2.04%. For St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.27. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +35.60%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 93.01%EV -5.95%E -5.72%K -148.81%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.37%EV +35.60%E +1.98%K +2.09%G +0.745%60.00I 1.67%NM 1.61%EV +22.18%E +0.370%K +0.376%G +0.083%3.4%2026-05-17 08:20
NordicBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 93.01%EV -5.95%E -5.72%K -148.81%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.37%EV +35.60%E +1.98%K +2.09%G +0.745%60.00I 1.67%NM 1.61%EV +22.18%E +0.370%K +0.376%G +0.083%3.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.72%EV -8.67%E -8.58%K -866.53%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.48%EV -7.72%E -0.630%K -0.686%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.80%EV +3.85%E +0.076%K +0.077%G +0.003%9.1%2026-05-17 08:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.14%EV -8.67%E -8.58%K -866.53%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -9.60%E -0.800%K -0.873%G +0.000%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.28%EV -18.55%E -0.464%K -0.476%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 08:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.19%EV -8.67%E -8.58%K -866.53%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.01%EV -24.67%E -2.47%K -2.74%G +0.000%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.80%EV +1.82%E +0.036%K +0.037%G +0.001%11.0%2026-05-14 12:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.11%EV -7.76%E -7.61%K -388.05%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV -24.67%E -2.47%K -2.74%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.90%EV -36.87%E -1.19%K -1.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-17 08:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 85.53%EV -9.57%E -9.57%K +0.000%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.80%EV -45.38%E -6.26%K -7.26%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.67%EV -34.84%E -1.09%K -1.12%G +0.000%16.9%2026-05-14 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%0.9%2026-05-17 08:20
Bet Right🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%4.3%2026-05-17 07:40
Neds🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%4.5%2026-05-12 06:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%4.5%2026-05-12 06:55
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.96%11.90I 8.40%NM 8.04%4.6%2026-05-17 07:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%4.9%2026-05-17 02:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%5.1%2026-05-16 22:35
Casumo🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%5.1%2026-05-16 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%5.1%2026-05-16 22:30
Grosvenor🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%5.1%2026-05-16 22:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%5.1%2026-05-16 22:35
LeoVegas🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%5.1%2026-05-16 22:30
TABtouch🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%5.1%2026-05-16 22:30
TAB🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%5.2%2026-05-16 04:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%5.2%2026-05-17 07:50
SportsBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%5.2%2026-05-17 08:15
PlayUp🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%5.2%2026-05-16 08:35
Dabble (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%5.2%2026-05-17 07:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.15%9.61I 10.41%NM 9.85%5.6%2026-05-16 04:50
Matchbook◎1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%6.2%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%6.4%2026-05-16 22:35
BetRivers🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%6.4%2026-05-16 22:30