The School of Odds
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Penrith Panthers v New Zealand Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-05-31 08:15 UTC

Final: Penrith Panthers 20–18 New Zealand Warriors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penrith Panthers (Local)

Prediction 51.24%1.95fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.01%51.27%51.24%56.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.771.751.8862.50%56.66%56.98%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 44.47%2.25fair odd
EV +2.29%
Edge +0.995%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.18%44.48%44.47%45.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.072.072.3052.36%48.34%48.31%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.28%23.34fair odd
EV +24.25%
Edge +0.836%
Kelly +0.866%
Growth +0.210%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.17%4.25%4.28%5.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.0020.0029.005.56%4.76%5.00%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penrith Panthers (Local): 51.24%; New Zealand Warriors (Visit): 44.47%; Draw: 4.28%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.25%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.71%EV -8.79%E -4.94%K -11.27%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.12%EV -9.28%E -4.55%K -8.92%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV +24.25%E +0.836%K +0.866%G +0.210%8.6%2026-05-31 08:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.02%EV -9.81%E -5.58%K -12.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -11.05%E -5.53%K -11.05%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.08%EV -5.74%E -0.261%K -0.273%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-31 07:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.31%EV -10.84%E -6.23%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -11.05%E -5.53%K -11.05%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.06%EV -5.74%E -0.261%K -0.273%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-31 07:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.06%EV -10.33%E -5.90%K -13.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.38%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56%EV -14.31%E -0.716%K -0.753%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 14:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.32%EV -18.01%E -11.26%K -30.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV +2.29%E +0.995%K +1.76%G +0.040%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -14.31%E -0.716%K -0.753%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-31 08:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.08%EV -11.35%E -6.56%K -15.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.36%EV -15.06%E -7.88%K -16.55%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.56%EV -18.60%E -0.979%K -1.03%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-31 08:10
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -3.66%E -1.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.77%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -22.88%E -1.27%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 07:50
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -3.66%E -1.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.77%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -22.88%E -1.27%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 07:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-05-31 08:10
Matchbook◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22%1.9%2026-05-31 08:07
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%3.6%2026-05-31 07:50
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%3.9%2026-05-31 08:01
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.48%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.52%4.7%2026-05-31 08:10
Neds🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-31 08:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-31 08:10
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-31 02:40
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-31 02:41
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-31 02:40
LeoVegas🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-31 02:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-31 02:41
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-31 02:41
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-31 02:40
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-05-31 07:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-05-30 23:10
PlayUp🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-31 08:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%5.3%2026-05-31 07:30
TAB🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-05-31 07:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-05-31 07:40
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%5.8%2026-05-31 02:40
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%6.0%2026-05-31 02:40