The School of Odds
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Penrith Panthers v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 08:15 UTC

Final: Penrith Panthers 18–16 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penrith Panthers (Local)

Prediction 78.70%1.27fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -3.27%
Kelly -18.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.96%78.81%78.70%79.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.161.131.2291.74%86.53%88.50%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 18.02%5.55fair odd
EV -0.903%
Edge -0.164%
Kelly -0.201%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.43%17.86%18.02%18.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.955.115.005.5020.20%19.58%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.28%30.46fair odd
EV +24.76%
Edge +0.652%
Kelly +0.669%
Growth +0.166%

assuming max odds 38.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.43%3.33%3.28%4.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0027.8626.0038.004.55%3.59%3.85%2.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penrith Panthers (Local): 78.70%; Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit): 18.02%; Draw: 3.28%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 30.46. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 38.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.76%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.92%EV -7.92%E -6.77%K -46.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.65%EV -10.81%E -2.18%K -2.74%G +0.000%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.43%EV +24.76%E +0.652%K +0.669%G +0.166%8.3%2026-05-03 01:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.83%EV -11.07%E -9.80%K -85.15%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.35%EV -6.31%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.82%EV +5.06%E +0.158%K +0.163%G +0.008%10.9%2026-05-03 01:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.41%EV -11.07%E -9.80%K -85.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.60%EV -8.11%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 2.99%EV -1.50%E -0.050%K -0.052%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 01:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 79.37%EV -14.22%E -13.04%K -157.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.30%EV -9.91%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.33%EV -14.64%E -0.563%K -0.585%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-03 07:06
Tipico (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.96%EV -11.07%E -9.80%K -85.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -0.903%E -0.164%K -0.201%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -17.92%E -0.717%K -0.747%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 12:35
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.96%EV -3.99%E -3.27%K -18.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -9.91%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -27.77%E -1.26%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 01:30
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.96%EV -3.99%E -3.27%K -18.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -9.91%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -27.77%E -1.26%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 01:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%0.8%2026-05-03 08:11
BetOnline.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%4.0%2026-05-03 07:40
Bet Right🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%4.4%2026-05-03 08:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%4.7%2026-05-03 06:50
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%4.7%2026-05-03 06:50
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.17%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.83%4.8%2026-05-03 08:05
SportsBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%5.1%2026-05-03 04:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%5.3%2026-05-03 06:50
TAB🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%5.4%2026-05-03 07:41
PlayUp🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%5.4%2026-05-03 07:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-03 04:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-02 12:25
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-02 12:25
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-02 12:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-02 12:25
LeoVegas🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-02 12:24
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-02 12:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-02 12:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-05-03 05:01
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%5.9%2026-05-02 12:25
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%5.9%2026-05-02 12:25