The School of Odds
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Penrith Panthers v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 08:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penrith Panthers (Local)

Prediction 66.89%1.49fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -6.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%66.82%67.13%68.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.431.431.4571.94%70.16%69.93%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 33.11%3.02fair odd
EV -0.679%
Edge -0.226%
Kelly -0.339%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.66%33.18%32.87%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.842.883.0037.04%35.19%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penrith Panthers (Local): 66.89%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 33.11%. For Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.679%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.01%E -2.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -10.61%E -3.93%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 05:59
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 01:54
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 01:54
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 01:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 01:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 01:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 01:54
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 01:54
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -10.61%E -3.93%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 06:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -4.34%E -3.04%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV -3.00%E -1.02%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 05:34
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -4.34%E -3.04%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -3.33%E -1.14%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-14 06:00
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.99%E -1.38%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 02:35
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.99%E -1.38%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 02:59
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.95%EV -4.32%E -1.50%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 02:29
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.65%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 06:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-13 00:25
PlayUp🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.68%E -4.03%K -13.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.99%E -1.38%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 06:10
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.35%E -4.54%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.679%E -0.226%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 16:38
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.35%E -4.54%K -15.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.33%E -0.791%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.35%E -4.54%K -15.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.33%E -0.791%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -7.02%E -5.05%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -0.679%E -0.226%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 02:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.26%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74%1.8%2026-03-14 06:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%6.5%2026-03-14 04:00
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%6.5%2026-03-14 03:59
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.06%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%8.1%2026-03-07 00:18
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.39%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.54%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%8.6%2026-03-13 23:34
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.39%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.81%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-03-13 14:18
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.39%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.81%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-03-13 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.67%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.22%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.12%10.5%2026-03-14 06:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.83%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.10%11.0%2026-03-14 05:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.64%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.05%12.1%2026-03-14 05:04