The School of Odds
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Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 10:02 UTC

Final: Penrith Panthers 24–10 Canterbury Bulldogs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penrith Panthers (Local)

Prediction 69.69%1.43fair odd
EV -5.92%
Edge -4.39%
Kelly -16.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.97%69.71%69.69%71.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.301.291.3580.00%76.92%77.22%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 26.26%3.81fair odd
EV -5.46%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.05%26.21%26.26%27.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.503.6030.77%28.83%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.05%24.68fair odd
EV +21.54%
Edge +0.718%
Kelly +0.743%
Growth +0.160%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.07%4.09%4.05%5.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.6322.0030.005.56%4.42%4.55%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penrith Panthers (Local): 69.69%; Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit): 26.26%; Draw: 4.05%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.68. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.54%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.26%EV -8.71%E -6.65%K -28.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -9.40%E -2.72%K -3.84%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +21.54%E +0.718%K +0.743%G +0.160%8.7%2026-08-28 09:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.09%EV -11.50%E -9.05%K -42.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.43%EV -6.77%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.47%EV +5.33%E +0.205%K +0.213%G +0.011%10.8%2026-08-28 10:01
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.16%EV -9.41%E -7.24%K -31.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.34%E -4.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV +1.28%E +0.051%K +0.053%G +0.001%11.2%2026-08-28 06:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.49%EV -12.89%E -10.31%K -51.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -14.65%E -4.51%K -6.51%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.78%EV -6.82%E -0.297%K -0.310%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-28 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.40%EV -10.10%E -7.83%K -34.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -10.71%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.26%EV -14.93%E -0.711%K -0.746%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 09:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.44%EV -10.80%E -8.44%K -38.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -5.46%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -18.98%E -0.949%K -0.999%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-28 10:00
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.92%E -4.39%K -16.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.46%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.17%EV -27.08%E -1.50%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-26 14:39
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.92%E -4.39%K -16.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.46%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.17%EV -27.08%E -1.50%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-26 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-08-28 10:01
Bet Right🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%4.7%2026-08-28 09:55
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.70%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.30%4.9%2026-08-28 09:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-08-26 03:19
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%5.0%2026-08-28 10:01
TAB🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-08-28 08:50
PlayUp🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%5.2%2026-08-28 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-25 07:04
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-25 07:04
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-25 23:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-25 23:14
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-25 23:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-25 23:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-25 23:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.68%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.32%5.6%2026-08-26 06:44
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%5.8%2026-08-26 22:20
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%5.8%2026-08-27 14:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%5.9%2026-08-28 09:35
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%6.3%2026-08-26 22:25