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Penrith Panthers v Brisbane Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-07-16 09:51 UTC

Final: Penrith Panthers 12–14 Brisbane Broncos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penrith Panthers (Local)

Prediction 75.61%1.32fair odd
EV -7.00%
Edge -5.69%
Kelly -30.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.48%75.73%75.59%77.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.191.201.2385.47%83.72%83.33%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 21.01%4.76fair odd
EV +5.07%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.064%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.46%20.76%21.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.384.205.0024.39%22.81%23.81%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.38%29.62fair odd
EV +11.40%
Edge +0.345%
Kelly +0.356%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 33.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.79%3.51%3.02%4.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0026.7828.0033.005.00%3.73%3.57%3.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -9.27%E -7.72%K -46.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV +5.07%E +1.01%K +1.27%G +0.064%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.62%EV -32.48%E -1.62%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-16 09:50
NordicBet1.17I 85.47%NM 77.79%EV -11.54%E -9.86%K -67.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.96%EV +0.870%E +0.181%K +0.229%G +0.002%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.25%EV -5.48%E -0.196%K -0.203%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-16 09:50
LeoVegas1.22I 81.97%NM 75.76%EV -7.76%E -6.36%K -35.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -5.43%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.70%EV -15.61%E -0.624%K -0.650%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-16 09:50
Tipico (DE)1.17I 85.47%NM 76.98%EV -11.54%E -9.86%K -67.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -5.43%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.00%EV +1.27%E +0.042%K +0.044%G +0.001%11.0%2026-07-16 09:50
Winamax (DE)1.20I 83.33%NM 75.43%EV -9.27%E -7.72%K -46.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -11.74%E -2.79%K -3.67%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.02%EV +1.27%E +0.042%K +0.044%G +0.001%10.5%2026-07-16 09:50
Marathon Bet1.23I 81.30%NM 74.98%EV -7.00%E -5.69%K -30.44%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -12.79%E -3.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +11.40%E +0.345%K +0.356%G +0.041%8.4%2026-07-16 09:49
Winamax (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 75.19%EV -10.02%E -8.42%K -52.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -13.84%E -3.38%K -4.46%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 2.98%EV +1.27%E +0.042%K +0.044%G +0.001%11.8%2026-07-16 09:50
Unibet (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 74.48%EV -9.27%E -7.72%K -46.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -13.84%E -3.38%K -4.46%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.72%EV -18.98%E -0.791%K -0.825%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-16 09:49
NetBet (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 74.57%EV -11.54%E -9.86%K -67.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.28%EV -13.84%E -3.38%K -4.46%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.15%EV -29.11%E -1.39%K -1.46%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-16 09:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-07-16 09:50
BetOnline.ag1.24I 80.65%NM 77.78%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%3.7%2026-07-16 09:50
Dabble (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%4.2%2026-07-16 09:49
SportsBet1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-07-16 09:50
TAB1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-07-16 09:50
PlayUp1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-07-16 09:50
Betr (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-07-16 09:50
Bet Right1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-07-16 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%5.0%2026-07-16 09:50
Neds1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%5.0%2026-07-16 09:50
Pinnacle1.26I 79.37%NM 75.49%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.51%5.1%2026-07-16 09:49
PointsBet (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%5.6%2026-07-16 09:50
BetRivers1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%6.3%2026-07-16 09:46
Casumo1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%6.4%2026-07-16 09:50
Unibet (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%6.4%2026-07-16 09:50
Unibet (NL)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%6.4%2026-07-16 09:50
Unibet1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%6.4%2026-07-16 09:50
Grosvenor1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%7.6%2026-07-16 09:50
TABtouch1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%7.6%2026-07-16 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%9.6%2026-07-16 09:50