The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 06:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Parramatta Eels (Local)

Prediction 48.89%2.05fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -4.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.73%48.94%48.89%50.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.841.811.9556.18%54.26%55.40%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 46.70%2.14fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -4.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.32%46.57%46.70%47.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.971.982.0554.95%50.79%50.51%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.41%22.67fair odd
EV +41.15%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.546%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.88%4.48%4.41%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0020.6020.5032.006.67%4.85%4.88%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Parramatta Eels (Local): 48.89%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 46.70%; Draw: 4.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.67. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +41.15%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.58%EV -9.06%E -4.87%K -10.53%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.54%EV -9.41%E -4.85%K -10.01%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +41.15%E +1.29%K +1.33%G +0.546%8.4%2026-04-06 06:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -11.99%E -6.66%K -14.99%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.66%EV -7.54%E -3.81%K -7.70%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.11%EV -2.96%E -0.135%K -0.141%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-06 01:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.36%EV -11.99%E -6.66%K -14.99%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -6.61%E -3.30%K -6.61%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%EV -7.37%E -0.351%K -0.369%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 07:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.36%EV -11.99%E -6.66%K -14.99%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -6.61%E -3.30%K -6.61%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%EV -7.37%E -0.351%K -0.369%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 07:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.41%EV -12.97%E -7.29%K -16.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.32%EV -7.54%E -3.81%K -7.70%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%EV -7.37%E -0.351%K -0.369%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-06 01:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -7.10%E -3.74%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -11.28%E -5.94%K -12.53%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.53%EV -11.78%E -0.589%K -0.620%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-06 05:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.19%EV -12.97%E -7.29%K -16.63%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.35%EV -8.01%E -4.07%K -8.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.47%EV -11.78%E -0.589%K -0.620%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-06 06:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 47.85%EV -11.50%E -6.36%K -14.20%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.59%EV -15.01%E -8.25%K -18.31%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.56%EV -16.20%E -0.852%K -0.900%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-06 06:00
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.05%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -4.27%E -2.08%K -4.07%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -33.84%E -2.26%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 05:59
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.05%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -4.27%E -2.08%K -4.07%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -33.84%E -2.26%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74%0.7%2026-04-06 06:00
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%3.9%2026-04-06 06:00
SportsBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%4.2%2026-04-06 04:25
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%4.2%2026-04-06 06:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-04-06 06:00
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-04-06 04:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-04-06 04:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-04-06 05:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-04-06 05:59
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-04-06 06:00
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-04-06 06:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-04-06 04:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-04-06 04:25
TABtouch🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-04-06 04:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-04-06 04:24
LeoVegas🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-04-06 04:24
Casumo🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-04-06 04:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-04-06 04:25
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-04-06 04:25
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-04-06 04:25
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%6.4%2026-04-06 04:24