The School of Odds
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Parramatta Eels v St George Illawarra Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 05:06 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Parramatta Eels (Local)

Prediction 59.33%1.69fair odd
EV -0.320%
Edge -0.191%
Kelly -0.471%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.21%59.31%59.33%63.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.521.6869.44%65.65%65.79%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 37.48%2.67fair odd
EV +3.08%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.01%37.08%37.48%38.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.512.452.7542.55%39.82%40.82%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.18%31.41fair odd
EV +5.07%
Edge +0.154%
Kelly +0.158%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 33.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.79%3.61%3.18%5.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0024.8923.0033.005.56%4.02%4.35%3.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Parramatta Eels (Local): 59.33%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 37.48%; Draw: 3.18%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 31.41. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 33.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.07%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.04%EV -14.56%E -10.11%K -33.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV +3.08%E +1.12%K +1.76%G +0.054%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.95%EV -26.77%E -1.16%K -1.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-22 05:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.04%EV -14.56%E -10.11%K -33.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV +3.08%E +1.12%K +1.76%G +0.054%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.95%EV -26.77%E -1.16%K -1.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-22 05:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.89%EV -13.97%E -9.63%K -31.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -2.54%E -0.979%K -1.59%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -20.40%E -0.816%K -0.850%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 05:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.12%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.40%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.09%EV -7.04%E -2.84%K -4.76%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +5.07%E +0.154%K +0.158%G +0.008%8.7%2026-03-22 05:04
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.21%EV -0.320%E -0.191%K -0.471%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -8.17%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -42.69%E -2.37%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 05:04
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.21%EV -0.320%E -0.191%K -0.471%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -8.17%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -42.69%E -2.37%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 05:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 59.82%EV -13.97%E -9.63%K -31.04%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.84%EV -9.29%E -3.84%K -6.54%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.34%EV -36.32%E -1.82%K -1.91%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-22 05:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.02%EV -9.81%E -6.46%K -18.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.18%EV -11.92%E -5.07%K -8.83%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.80%EV +1.88%E +0.059%K +0.061%G +0.001%11.5%2026-03-22 05:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.02%EV -9.81%E -6.46%K -18.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.18%EV -11.92%E -5.07%K -8.83%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.80%EV +1.88%E +0.059%K +0.061%G +0.001%11.5%2026-03-22 05:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.1%2026-03-22 05:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%3.2%2026-03-22 05:04
PlayUp🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%4.1%2026-03-22 05:05
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.59%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%4.4%2026-03-22 05:04
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-03-22 04:58
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-03-22 05:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-03-22 05:04
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-03-22 05:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-03-22 05:04
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%5.1%2026-03-22 05:04
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%5.1%2026-03-22 05:04
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%5.1%2026-03-22 05:04
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%5.1%2026-03-22 05:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%5.1%2026-03-22 05:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%5.1%2026-03-22 05:05
LeoVegas🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%5.1%2026-03-22 05:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%5.1%2026-03-22 05:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-03-22 05:04
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-03-22 05:04
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%5.6%2026-03-22 04:56
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%6.0%2026-03-22 05:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%6.2%2026-03-22 05:04