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Parramatta Eels v Penrith Panthers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Parramatta Eels (Local)
assuming max odds 5.80
Penrith Panthers (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.19
Draw
assuming max odds 35.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Parramatta Eels (Local): 18.93%; Penrith Panthers (Visit): 77.94%; Draw: 3.12%. For Parramatta Eels (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.28. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.81%.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV +9.81%E +1.69%K +2.04%G +0.201% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.51%EV -11.14%E -9.78%K -79.60%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.67%EV -21.92%E -0.877%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-22 12:39 |
| NordicBet | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV +6.03%E +1.08%K +1.31%G +0.079% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.23%EV -8.81%E -7.53%K -51.80%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.21%EV -31.29%E -1.42%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-23 09:49 |
| Betsson | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV +0.347%E +0.066%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.35%EV -8.03%E -6.80%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV -31.29%E -1.42%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-23 09:15 |
| Unibet (FR) | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.19%EV -1.55%E -0.297%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.09%EV -11.92%E -10.55%K -91.72%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.72%EV -25.04%E -1.04%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-22 12:40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -5.33%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.22%EV -9.59%E -8.26%K -59.91%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -21.92%E -0.877%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-23 08:39 |
| Tipico (DE) | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -5.33%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.37%EV -10.37%E -9.01%K -69.10%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -21.92%E -0.877%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-23 07:04 |
| NetBet (FR) | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.47%EV -11.01%E -2.34%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 78.19%EV -13.48%E -12.15%K -122.57%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.34%EV -18.80%E -0.723%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-07-23 08:09 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.84%EV -11.96%E -2.57%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.52%EV -7.25%E -6.09%K -38.14%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.64%EV +9.31%E +0.266%K +0.274%G +0.025% | 8.4% | 2026-07-23 09:10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -14.80%E -3.29%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.41%EV -9.59%E -8.26%K -59.91%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.64%EV +6.19%E +0.182%K +0.187%G +0.012% | 11.4% | 2026-07-23 09:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.02% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.98% | 1.3% | 2026-07-23 09:45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.96I 20.16%NM 19.35% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.65% | 4.2% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| Neds | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 4.7% | 2026-07-23 07:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 4.7% | 2026-07-23 07:29 |
| TABtouch | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 5.1% | 2026-07-23 08:34 |
| Casumo | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 5.1% | 2026-07-23 08:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 5.1% | 2026-07-23 08:35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 5.1% | 2026-07-23 08:34 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 5.1% | 2026-07-23 08:34 |
| Bet Right | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34% | 5.1% | 2026-07-23 09:15 |
| PlayUp | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59% | 5.2% | 2026-07-23 09:14 |
| Betr (AU) | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59% | 5.2% | 2026-07-22 23:59 |
| Pinnacle | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.17% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.83% | 5.3% | 2026-07-23 09:49 |
| SportsBet | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80% | 5.3% | 2026-07-23 09:49 |
| Dabble (AU) | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04% | 5.5% | 2026-07-23 05:39 |
| TAB | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27% | 5.6% | 2026-07-23 01:04 |
| Unibet | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45% | 5.8% | 2026-07-23 09:09 |
| BetRivers | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45% | 5.8% | 2026-07-23 09:09 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40% | 6.3% | 2026-07-22 11:34 |
| Grosvenor | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23% | 7.0% | 2026-07-23 09:09 |