The School of Odds

Parramatta Eels v Penrith Panthers

2026-07-23 09:50 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Parramatta Eels (Local)

Prediction 17.69%5.65fair odd
EV -0.956%
Edge -0.171%
Kelly -0.208%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.59%17.69%17.69%20.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.914.905.6024%20%20%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Penrith Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 79.38%1.26fair odd
EV -7.13%
Edge -6.09%
Kelly -41.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.04%79.38%79.38%80.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.121.151.151.1789%87%87%85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 2.94%34.05fair odd
EV +5.74%
Edge +0.160%
Kelly +0.164%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.56%2.94%2.94%3.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
23.0028.3328.0036.004%4%4%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -13.34%E -2.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.66%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.94%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.56%EV +5.74%E +0.160%K +0.164%G +0.009%8.7%2026-07-15 04:49
Winamax (DE)4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -13.34%E -2.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.55%EV -8.72%E -7.58%K -58.11%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.01%EV -11.88%E -0.396%K -0.410%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-15 07:14
NordicBet5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -0.956%E -0.171%K -0.208%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.09%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.52%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.32%EV -17.76%E -0.634%K -0.658%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 04:47
Betsson5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -0.956%E -0.171%K -0.208%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.09%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.52%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.32%EV -17.76%E -0.634%K -0.658%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 04:49
Winamax (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 20.33%EV -25.72%E -6.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 76.25%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.49%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.42%EV -26.57%E -1.06%K -1.11%G +0.000%17.1%2026-07-15 07:24
Unibet (FR)4.25I 23.53%NM 20.22%EV -24.83%E -5.84%K -7.64%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 76.04%EV -10.30%E -9.12%K -79.27%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.74%EV -32.44%E -1.41%K -1.47%G +0.000%16.4%2026-07-15 07:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%5.2%2026-07-15 02:54