Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys

2026-08-15 07:30 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

46%

50%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Parramatta Eels (Local)

Prediction 46.09%2.17fair odd

EV -7.83%

Edge -3.91%

Kelly -7.83%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.62%46.09%46.09%46.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.881.941.942.0053.19%51.61%51.68%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 50.37%1.99fair odd

EV -7.83%

Edge -4.28%

Kelly -9.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

49.84%50.37%50.37%50.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.721.771.771.8358.14%56.50%56.66%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.55%28.21fair odd

EV -7.83%

Edge -0.301%

Kelly -0.313%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.55%3.55%3.55%4.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

19.0021.7521.0026.005.26%4.60%4.76%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Parramatta Eels (Local): 46.09%; North Queensland Cowboys (Visit): 50.37%; Draw: 3.55%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.21. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 26.00, with an expected value of -7.83%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.83%E -3.91%K -7.83%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV -7.83%E -0.301%K -0.313%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-06 06:24
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 45.66%EV -8.75%E -4.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -9.34%E -5.19%K -11.67%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.11%EV -22.01%E -1.00%K -1.05%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-08-06 01:43
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 45.62%EV -12.90%E -6.82%K -14.49%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 49.84%EV -12.86%E -7.44%K -17.62%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.54%EV -32.64%E -1.72%K -1.81%G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-08-06 01:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 45.72%EV -13.36%E -7.10%K -15.18%G +0.000%	1.72I 58.14%NM 49.98%EV -13.37%E -7.77%K -18.57%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.30%EV -29.10%E -1.45%K -1.53%G +0.000%	16.3%	2026-08-06 01:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%	4.2%	2026-08-06 01:39