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Parramatta Eels v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Parramatta Eels (Local)
assuming max odds 3.90
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.45
Draw
assuming max odds 35.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Parramatta Eels (Local): 26.24%; Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit): 69.96%; Draw: 3.80%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.31. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 35.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +33.02%.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.56%E -4.12%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.69%EV +33.02%E +0.943%K +0.971%G +0.321% | 6.3% | 2026-07-05 04:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.56%E -4.12%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.69%EV +33.02%E +0.943%K +0.971%G +0.321% | 6.3% | 2026-07-05 04:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -9.47%E -2.74%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.74%EV -10.45%E -8.17%K -37.33%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.02%EV +14.02%E +0.467%K +0.483%G +0.068% | 10.4% | 2026-07-05 04:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.49%EV -5.01%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.97%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.18%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV -1.19%E -0.046%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-05 03:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV +2.34%E +0.600%K +0.807%G +0.019% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.50%EV -10.45%E -8.17%K -37.33%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV -4.99%E -0.199%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-05 03:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.46%EV -12.55%E -10.04%K -50.21%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.72%EV -8.79%E -0.366%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-05 03:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.16%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.19%EV -9.75%E -7.56%K -33.63%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.94%EV -12.59%E -0.547%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-05 04:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.24%EV -9.47%E -2.74%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 70.80%EV -13.95%E -11.34%K -60.66%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 3.96%EV -16.39%E -0.745%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-07-05 04:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -29.15%E -10.80%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV +1.44%E +0.993%K +3.20%G +0.046% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -23.99%E -1.20%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-05 03:59 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.39% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.61% | 2.3% | 2026-07-05 04:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55% | 4.3% | 2026-07-05 01:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33% | 4.7% | 2026-07-05 03:55 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55% | 4.8% | 2026-07-05 02:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05% | 4.9% | 2026-07-05 03:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 03:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 03:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 03:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 04:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 03:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 03:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 03:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 03:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 03:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 03:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 03:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 04:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 5.5% | 2026-07-05 03:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 00:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04% | 6.8% | 2026-07-05 03:15 |